Ukraine Seeks Strategic Momentum Ahead of Possible Counteroffensive

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the Ukrainian armed forces are prepared for a global counteroffensive. He emphasized a high level of readiness, noting that the final call rests with the General Staff and the commanders, contingent on weather, conditions, and divine approval. He added that the team will act when the moment is right and strategic decisions align.

Reznikov also pointed out that while Western training for operating modern equipment has progressed, some courses remain unfinished. Reuters reported that thousands of Ukrainian service members have already trained abroad and learned to integrate various weapons systems on the battlefield. The defense minister highlighted that weaponry and training would go hand in hand, with a focus on a modern armored capability. He reminded listeners that in addition to a tank coalition including Leopard 2 and Challenger models, Leopard 1 will join later on.

He also mentioned anticipation for American Abrams tanks but warned they are unlikely to arrive in time for the planned counteroffensive. He remarked that Abrams may not be ready to participate in this particular operation, while training progress for Ukrainian units continues apace.

According to Kyiv’s defense leadership, a substantial supply of armored vehicles from Western partners has reached Ukraine. Among the types cited were Bradley, Marder, Stryker, and CV90, along with other platforms. Reznikov noted that while weapons are promised and partly delivered, the force must also master their use. In summary, he asserted that the country is prepared to act when circumstances allow.

Kyiv remains hopeful that the upcoming counteroffensive could shift the trajectory of hostilities. The Ukrainian General Staff’s latest daily bulletin indicated that the fiercest clashes have occurred around the city of Bakhmut, underscoring the intensity of ongoing fighting.

Date unknown, destination also

Speculation about Ukraine’s counteroffensive has circulated for months, but no specific start date has been publicly announced. In early March, advisor Mikhail Podolyak suggested the forces might press forward within two months. On April 15, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal suggested the offensive could begin in the summer. By April 19, Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said that there was little point predicting a large-scale operation without clear plans. The deputy head of the division described clashes in Maryinka, Liman, and Bakhmut near Avdiivka as elements of a broader counteroffensive in progress.

Natalya Gumenyuk, head of the Joint Coordination Center for the Southern Defense Forces, noted that the counterattack has already taken small steps and serves to reduce Russian military capacity. Different voices named different directions and targets. Crimea’s acting head Sergei Aksyonov stated that authorities are prepared to attack the peninsula, while Volodymyr Saldo, acting governor of the Kherson region, suggested that Ukrainian troops could strike there. A Bild report citing NATO analysts identified Zaporozhye and Luhansk as principal directions for action, with a goal of disrupting Russia’s ground links to Crimea. On April 25, The New York Times, drawing on leaked U.S. intelligence and Pentagon documents, reported that Kyiv was preparing roughly 12 brigades of about 4,000 troops each for a southward offensive by May. These varied forecasts reflect the high level of strategic ambiguity surrounding timing and locales. (Reuters, The New York Times)

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