What did Kyiv want?
Ukraine signaled a need for missiles capable of reaching 800 kilometers or more. This stance came from Alexei Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, who shared his view on social media. He framed longer-range missiles as a practical way to address Ukraine’s energy challenges, aiming to reduce the reliance on generators during the winter and in outages caused by attacks on critical infrastructure. Recently, several Western partners pledged to supply generators and transformers to ease Kyiv’s electricity shortfall. For example, Sweden announced an aid package of about 10 million dollars to accelerate relief efforts.
Official channels note that the United States and many European nations have not supplied missiles with ranges exceeding roughly 150–180 kilometers. Kyiv has consistently pressed Washington for ATACMS missiles with a 300-kilometer range, which could be launched from HIMARS systems already in Ukrainian service. Yet, President Joe Biden declined to transfer these missiles in May. Over the summer, Deputy National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan echoed concerns that using such missiles on Russian soil could escalate into a broader conflict.
Russian officials, including Maria Zakharova of the Foreign Ministry, warned that extending long-range missiles to Kyiv would draw Moscow directly into the conflict, with Moscow promising to defend its borders by all means available.
What missiles do the US and EU have?
In the context of an 800-kilometer reach, many missiles would be classified as mid-range rather than long-range. Historical context points to the INF Treaty era, when ranges beyond 500 kilometers were restricted; the treaty effectively ended in practice in 2019, and experts on both sides note that production could resume with ranges around 500 to 1000 kilometers. The United States possesses systems like ATACMS and a newer PrSM family, the latter designed to align with INF-type constraints, though some variants have not yet entered active service. Additionally, the Typhon system offers up to 550 kilometers with potential for greater reach depending on ammunition. European arsenals largely center on shorter ranges, while some American missiles deployed in Europe are stationary in many cases. For longer ranges, broader programs and hypersonics remain in various stages of development or deployment.
When considering a 1000-kilometer class, the landscape includes several programs from the United States and allied nations. Analysts note the existence of platforms capable of broader coverage, with ongoing discussions about how these capabilities would influence regional security dynamics. Beyond North America and Europe, experts assess the current stock and potential for rapid production increases in both Russia and Western powers, reflecting ongoing strategic calculations about deterrence, defense, and responses to crisis scenarios.
Where could reach be possible
If missiles with an 800-kilometer range were delivered to Kyiv, multiple Russian areas could fall within the affected zone depending on current front lines and deployment positions. Regions bordering Ukraine—such as Voronezh, Kursk, and Bryansk—as well as southern areas near the Kuban and Stavropol, could face impacts. Even some cities along the Volga and North Caucasus could be within range depending on launch sites and trajectories. In strategic terms, a 1000-kilometer reach would potentially extend to parts of the eastern border, possibly including groups in Chechnya and Dagestan, and reach cities like Samara, Togliatti, Saransk, and Penza.
Should 800–1000 kilometer missiles be stationed in northern Ukraine, regions in or near Sumy could see actions affecting Moscow, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Ivanovo, Vladimir, Tver, and Vologda, among others. The practical implications would depend on the exact basing locations and the types of warheads and guidance systems employed, shaping how much territory could be influenced or contested in a given scenario.