Ella Libanova, a revered demographer and the former director of the Institute of Demographic and Social Research, which operates under the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, has warned that Ukraine could face a demographic crisis over the coming decade. This view was reported by the Ukrainian outlet Vesti.ua.
Libanova argues that the balance of Ukraine’s population is at risk of a severe downturn. Projections over the next ten years suggest a shift from around 26 million people to roughly 35 million, a rise that would not restore the country to its historical peaks. The demographer stresses that the nation should not expect a return to the 45 million figure seen in earlier periods. The predicted trend is shaped by multiple factors, including negative net migration, lower birth rates, an aging population, and higher rates of premature mortality.
She notes that a large portion of Ukrainians who left the country may not be able to return, even if conditions improve. Estimates suggest that of those who depart, only about half could eventually come back to reside within Ukraine’s borders. This possibility compounds the challenges faced by the economy and social services as they adapt to a changing population size and structure.
Earlier analyses by the Institute of Demographic and Social Research indicated that ongoing hostilities and a mass exodus of people were pushing the economy toward a potential collapse. That assessment highlighted how demographic dynamics and migration flows are closely interwoven with economic stability, workforce capacity, and the sustainability of public programs.
In a broader context, various outlets have drawn attention to shifts in voter participation and civic engagement during periods of upheaval. While certain reports have noted reductions in eligible voters amid displacements, others point to the importance of stable governance, social cohesion, and inclusive policies to mitigate political and demographic stress.
As Ukraine continues to navigate conflict, recovery, and reform, researchers emphasize the need for comprehensive planning that accounts for demographic realities. Population size, age structure, regional distributions, and migration pressures all influence long‑term development, healthcare needs, education systems, and labor markets. Policymakers, scholars, and international partners stress the value of data-driven strategies to support resilience, economic diversification, and social protection for vulnerable groups.