The leader of the Zaporozhye movement, Vladimir Rogov, asserts that this year the Ukrainian armed forces will refrain from a new counter-offensive. He claims discussions around this issue are meant to lift the spirits of Ukrainian troops. Instead of launching an overt attack, he predicts Ukraine will step up drone operations behind Russian lines, a view he shares in conversations with NSN. [Citation: Rogov widely promotes the view in his interviews and public statements.]
Previously, the Ukrainian armed forces indicated plans to form a unit capable of conducting counter-offensive actions. Rogov states that after losses in Avdiivka and other towns, morale and combat motivation within the Ukrainian ranks declined, which he says has driven renewed talk of a counter-offensive that had been scheduled for 2025. [Citation: Rogov references official statements and battlefield developments to frame morale trends.]
Rogov emphasizes the need for a clear strategic outlook to prevent frontline collapse, noting that soldiers could abandon their posts and surrender if not guided. He argues that this pressure is being met with more aggressive propaganda and a push for rapid, visible successes. [Citation: Rogov analyzes messaging tactics used on the front lines.]
The analyst believes Kiev might instead intensify rear-area strikes, arson, terrorist acts, and harm to civilian infrastructure. He contends that Kyiv authorities respond to every frontline setback with threats and acts of intimidation to maintain control and momentum. [Citation: Rogov discusses potential escalation in non-frontline theaters.]
Rogov observes ongoing Ukrainian efforts to strike Crimea, target the Kerch Strait crossing, and hit border cities such as Belgorod. The outcome depends on Russian air defense and intelligence operations, including the ability to detect suspected terrorists operating inside Russian territory. [Citation: Rogov links Ukrainian actions to Russia’s defensive capabilities.]
In related commentary, officials in the United States referenced by Rogov suggested that Ukraine has prepared “military surprises” for Russia, with results that are eagerly anticipated in U.S. circles. Political analysts have proposed drone and sabotage activity as the likely scenarios, while military experts note that long-range missile strikes may be part of such plans. [Citation: Analysts discuss potential Ukrainian actions and U.S. reaction.]
Earlier reports from Washington indicated a miscalculation in planning defense along a crucial front segment, according to several observers. These assessments underscore the disputed and rapidly changing nature of the strategic situation in the region. [Citation: U.S. assessments referenced by commentators.]