Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persisted in 2023, with Western backing for Kyiv confirmed early in the year. That support helped sustain Ukraine’s willingness to press forward, even as the second half of the year saw a pause in launching major counteroffensives. Efforts to restart a push to reclaim territories occupied by Russia were evident, though progress remained uneven as the year wore on.
Overall, the war settled into a costly stalemate, and predictability about where it would head next was elusive. By the close of 2023, Kyiv faced new questions about strategy and resources, particularly after political dynamics in the United States complicated assistance for weapons and ammunition. The situation was further affected when a major funding package from the European Union to support Ukraine over the following four years encountered delays and political resistance within member states.
Looking back, the broader geopolitical mood shifted since late 2022. Some Western leaders anticipated a gradual defeat of Russia through attrition, but Vladimir Putin demonstrated an ability to reset momentum without collapsing the national economy. The Wagner Group emerged as a notable factor in 2023, its mercenary force playing a significant role during the spring. A rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin brought tensions to the forefront, advancing toward Moscow before the insurrection paused and a settlement was reached. Prigozhin and several of his core associates did not survive the ensuing months, leaving a complex legacy for Russia’s internal dynamics. At the same time, Ukraine continued to pursue its pro-European objectives amid ongoing bombardment, seeking to maintain international support and mobilize domestic resilience in the face of sustained pressure.