Serhiy Naev, the commander overseeing Ukraine’s Joint Forces, indicated that Kyiv is gearing up for a possible military offensive. He stressed that while the forces are being prepared, the exact timing remains uncertain.
The commander also commented on the training timeline for Ukrainian pilots to operate Western aircraft, including American F-16s. He noted that training on modern Western platforms extends beyond technical inspections; it requires real flight practice, especially for coordinated group missions, which takes months to complete.
Naev did not disclose additional specifics but spoke about the situation along the Belarusian border. He said Kyiv is monitoring shifts in Belarusian and Russian troop numbers and would respond in a mirrored fashion if the numbers swelling becomes evident.
His stance was that any increase in enemy forces would prompt Ukraine to bolster its own ranks, continuing this effort to balance the two sides over time.
The Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly claimed that Ukrainian forces failed in various thrusts. For instance, it asserted that motorized rifle units of the Western Military District repelled a Ukrainian attempt to push them back from a position in one direction earlier this year.
Decisive battles in the spring
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s intelligence leader, Kirill Budanov, suggested that crucial battles would unfold from mid to late spring. He answered Forbes questions affirmatively, indicating that the war’s turning point could come during these larger clashes.
Budanov highlighted three notable Ukrainian successes since hostilities began: the defense around Kyiv, Ukrainian advances toward Kharkiv, and the restoration of control over Kherson. He also identified three strategic losses for Ukraine: the fall of Severodonetsk, the breach of the defensive line near Volnovakha, and the loss of Crimea and Donbas in 2014.
The head of Ukraine’s intelligence also voiced the view that if Ukraine achieves military gains, it will likely establish a security perimeter along the border. He proposed a demilitarized strip between 40 and 100 kilometers wide under constant surveillance as a potential measure.
Budanov added that returning to the 1991 borders would be a prerequisite for victory, while the subsequent steps would be determined later once those borders are restored.
Fortifications in Crimea
Discussion of a possible offensive frequently references Crimea. In late 2022, Crimea’s leadership announced fortification initiatives on the peninsula, with officials later saying construction would be completed in the spring. By February of the following year, Kyiv and its supporters noted the ongoing defensive preparations along the Crimean border, describing them as essential precautions backed by federal funding.
The Crimean authorities emphasized that they owned full control over the region’s security and argued that the peninsula would remain under Russian oversight. They also signaled continued border-wide defensive measures as part of broader strategic stability plans. Kyiv, however, has consistently rejected the 2014 referendum results on Crimea and views the peninsula as Ukrainian territory, repeatedly signaling the intention to reclaim it, potentially through military means. In late 2022, Ukrainian officials stated they would pursue every available option to restore control, signaling a long-term commitment to Crimea’s status.