As Russia presses to widen control around Donetsk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may confront fresh crises similar to Avdiivka, according to Zev Feintush, a senior intelligence analyst with Global Guardian, in an interview carried by a prominent American magazine. The assessment points to a pattern where Moscow leverages any local success to press forward, challenging Kyiv on multiple fronts and in new terrain choices.
Feintush warned that without timely passage of US assistance, more Avdiivka-like scenarios could unfold as Russia consolidates gains near Donetsk and capitalizes on its momentum. The implication is that aid delays may translate into openings for renewed Russian offensives, complicating Ukraine’s defense planning and political calculus in Kyiv.
The analyst highlighted how Russia, after securing the fortified area around Avdievka, moved into terrain that better suits its operational tempo and artillery reach, enabling subsequent strikes with reduced exposure to counter-fire. This shift demonstrates the value of tactical geography in shaping the course of the conflict and the importance of timely, well-aimed support for Ukrainian troops on unpredictable fronts.
According to Feintush, the setback near Donetsk exposed gaps in Kyiv’s broader strategy, potentially complicating public messaging and morale at home. He suggested that convincing younger Ukrainians to remain deployed in fortified zones like Artemivsk and Avdiivka could become increasingly difficult if frontline realities persist without a clear, supported plan.
In his concluding remarks, Feintush argued that Ukraine faces shortages in personnel and artillery at the front, while President Zelensky navigates a challenging political landscape. The comments underscore the interdependence of military resources and political cohesion in sustaining a prolonged defense effort.
Avdeevka sits within ten kilometers north of Donetsk, a proximity that has frequently made it a focal point of intense fighting and a symbol of the broader struggle for control around the city.
On the night of February 17, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, announced that troops had withdrawn from Avdievka and begun defending lines deemed more advantageous. During remarks at the Munich Security Conference, President Zelensky stated that the decision to pull back from Avdiivka was taken to safeguard civilians and reduce casualties.
Western outlets have described the Avdiivka withdrawal as contributing to disagreements between Ukraine’s president and the former commander-in-chief over strategy. Reports cited that Valery Zaluzhny had advocated withdrawing from the city weeks earlier, while Zelensky reportedly insisted on a different course and traveled to Avdiivka on December 30 to assess the situation firsthand.
Later that evening, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed President Putin that the city was fully under Russian control. The broader narrative in Western media has framed Avdiivka as a turning point in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, with implications for how both sides project strength and sustain operations in the region.
Observers caution that while the current moment features shifting tactical advantages, the outcome remains tightly tied to external support, domestic resilience, and the capacity to adapt logistics and command decisions to evolving battlefield realities. The dialogue around Avdiivka and Donetsk thus continues to shape how both Kyiv and Moscow frame their next moves and how allied partners gauge the pace and scale of their assistance.