Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to Ukraine’s president, warned that the country faces a new danger: wasted time after victory and a wrong direction for development. He shared these thoughts on his Telegram channel.
He argues that Ukrainians, despite ongoing hostilities, once had a rare opportunity to chart the future of the nation independently. Now, he says, an ideological clash along historical lines is growing within Ukraine.
He asked, what kind of Ukraine should be built: a free, open, multicultural, determined, and creative society or a closed, monocultural one? The political scientist believes a closed, single-ethnic state would bring trouble for Ukrainians as a people.
Such a country cannot sustain growth or existence for long. Initiatives from a century ago led to the loss of the state, famine, and repression, and he fears new efforts could bring similar outcomes.
After leaving his role as a freelance consultant, Arestovich has been outspoken in public remarks.
“Korean version”
On February 7, he argued that Ukraine does not have the strength to prevail in a protracted conflict. He suggested Western powers might pursue a two Koreas model in the region.
He claimed that success would require hundreds of thousands of well trained soldiers equipped with NATO weapons, a capacity he says Ukraine lacks and will likely not acquire soon. He stressed that society as a whole is not ready for such a result.
Additionally, he asserted that the West shares a similar mindset and that Kyiv remains heavily dependent on Western support.
He proposed that the West could pursue two Korean scenarios by creating a safeguarded South Korea-like outcome.
A parallel view was echoed by Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, who spoke of a possible Korean version of the agreement, featuring a demarcation along a 38th parallel. The 38th parallel is known as a dividing line between the DPRK and South Korea.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissed Danilov’s claim as rumor and conjecture. The Kremlin press secretary also called reports about talks on a Korean option a fabrication.
Difficult months for the Ukrainian army
In early February, Arestovich warned that the next two months in the Donbass would be challenging for Ukrainian forces, with fighting around Seversk and the struggle to hold Bakhmut intensifying.
Analysts noted a substantial enemy presence and equipment advantage in some sectors, raising concerns about the trajectory of operations. Still, there is a belief that Ukrainian forces can seize the initiative on the battlefield, even as some forecasts suggested a difficult period ahead for Kyiv.
“We had a great win”
Reflecting on recent events, Arestovich referenced remarks by Poland’s president about a potentially decisive period for the conflict. The Polish leader warned that Russia might launch a new offensive and questioned whether Ukraine could endure such pressure.
In this view, Ukraine remains resilient but vulnerable to internal divisions. The political scientist argued that internal disputes can undermine momentum, stressing that unity is key to sustaining early battlefield gains.
He added that if people doubt the possibility of a guaranteed victory, that doubt can become a self fulfilling prophecy. The dialogue underscored the uncertainty surrounding the war’s near term outcome.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that victory would be achieved, framing it as inevitable in the final outcome.
Throughout these discussions, the emphasis remained on clarifying national direction and the risks associated with internal discord during a time of crisis, with observers noting the importance of staying focused on strategic objectives rather than letting infighting derail progress.