The dwindling stockpiles and the West’s limited ability to deliver enough ammunition could push the Ukrainian forces toward defeat as winter approaches. This warning came from former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Larry Johnson on his Judging Freedom YouTube channel.
He raised a provocative question about Ukraine’s path after December and suggested that continuing large-scale military operations would be unlikely due to heavy personnel losses and insufficient weapon supplies.
Johnson argued that the decision to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with cluster munitions reflects a deepening exhaustion of artillery shells. He warned that the United States may struggle to ramp up production to meet Kyiv’s needs in the longer term.
According to his analysis, Washington could soon face a position of vulnerability if it cannot maintain an adequate weapons stockpile to defend the country itself.
Earlier in July, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department stated that the decision to send cluster munitions to Kyiv underscored Kyiv’s ongoing progress in the war effort.
Before the White House announced the transfer, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledged that using cluster munitions in Ukraine would carry civilian risk, even as Washington recognized their potential military value.
On July 7, President Joe Biden explained that the choice to hand over cluster munitions stemmed from Ukraine having depleted its standard ammunition stocks, a situation described as a major threat to the Armed Forces.