A few hours remain before the UK election results are announced, and polls still show the Labour Party with a comfortable edge in vote share. According to BBC’s average based on major surveys, Keir Starmer’s party would be near 40 percent of the votes, a slight dip from recent weeks, while the Conservatives would be the second most voted party at around 20 percent. Yet the large gap in vote percentages does not necessarily translate into a similar gap in seats in the House of Commons due to the non proportional nature of the British electoral model.
In the United Kingdom, each constituency is tied to a single seat, so all 650 Members of Parliament represent distinct parts of the country. The seat-by-seat voting method, known as first past the post, awards victory to the candidate with the most votes in each constituency, regardless of how large the margin is over the second-placed candidate. This system can create mismatches between total party votes and the number of seats won, because a big victory in one area carries the same weight as a narrow win in another.
Beneficiaries and losers
The model disadvantages smaller parties with support spread nationwide, making it hard for them to become the plurality winner in individual constituencies. Reform UK, a right-wing populist party, is expected to take fewer than ten seats despite polls placing it as a close third with about 16 percent of the vote, just four points behind the Conservatives, who are projected to win a little over a hundred seats. The Greens face a similar challenge, holding about 6 percent in the polls but aiming for only two seats. Under a fully proportional system, Reform UK would secure about 104 seats and the Greens 39.
In contrast, nationalist parties benefit from a highly concentrated vote in a handful of constituencies. The Scottish National Party could win around 20 seats despite about 3 percent of the vote. Plaid Cymru in Wales is expected to reach four seats with around 1 percent of the vote, while in Northern Ireland, both the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin are likely to secure a significant share of seats despite a smaller percentage of total votes.
Labour majority
The size of Labour’s victory will hinge on their ability to win in so-called marginal seats where contest is decided by a small margin. Labour supporters expect breakthroughs in traditionally Conservative areas in southern England, while the Liberal Democrats also hope to present a credible challenge to the Conservative fatigue. The Liberal Democrats, polling around 11 percent, could win a notable number of seats in the Commons, perhaps up to 70, thanks to strong local organization in certain constituencies.
Forecasts indicate Labour could reach up to 480 seats, a level far above the absolute majority of 326. Yet even a small swing away from Labour in key constituencies could trim that total, especially if Conservative efforts slow a potential drift of votes toward Reform UK. The surveys also highlight the difficulty of precise seat projections until after the initial exit polls, which are expected to be released around 10 p.m. local time, or 11 p.m. in Spain’s peninsula time zone.
Vote counting
Polling stations close at a specified hour, followed by a count that may stretch into the early hours of Friday. In the hours between midnight and 3 a.m., results from around a hundred constituencies will emerge, with most winning announcements following between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. The expectation is that by 7 a.m. local time, most results will be in, paving the way for early ceremonial visits to Buckingham Palace and public remarks from the top political leaders as the day begins.