Seven years since the historic Brexit vote and the evolving UK path
Seven years have passed since the pivotal referendum on June 23, 2016, a moment many view as the beginning of a turbulent phase in British politics. The choice to exit the European Union carried promises of economic renewal, tighter border control, and a shift away from policies some linked to various social and economic challenges. In that moment, 51.9% of voters supported leaving the EU, a margin that mirrored deep domestic concerns about sovereignty and economic direction. The country then confronted questions about what independence from the bloc would mean for trade, investment, and everyday life. Today, opinions appear to be shifting with growing interest in the possibility of closer ties with the EU under a new referendum scenario if there is clear public appetite for such a vote. [YouGov, recent survey]
Recent polling indicates a division in public opinion about rejoining the EU. A YouGov survey released this week shows 58.2% of Britons would vote against reentry, while 41.8% would vote in favor, once undecided voters and abstainers are removed from the calculation. This marks a shift from early 2021 when around 47% supported readmission. Another study by Deltapoll found that 53% of Britons regarded leaving the EU as a mistake, while 34% saw it as a good decision. The contrast between these figures underlines the ongoing debate about Brexit and its perceived benefits and costs. [Deltapoll, YouGov]
Unfulfilled promises
Many observers expected rapid gains from Brexit, yet the negotiations with the EU were lengthy and often tense. Within the United Kingdom, internal disagreements within the ruling party intensified, contributing to leadership shifts and a sense of political instability. Even some high-profile Brexit proponents, once staunch allies of the exit strategy, have described the outcome with disappointment. The gap between initial commitments and later developments has fueled criticism and public skepticism about how the transition was managed.
Economically, the government faced pressures such as persistent inflation and only gradual improvement in growth. Inflation surged in multiple periods, prompting the Bank of England to adjust interest rates. Higher borrowing costs affected household budgets, including mortgage payments, while policymakers promised strategies to bring inflation down and stabilize the economy over the medium term. Overall economic performance remains central in debates about Brexit’s long-term trajectory.
Analysts point to several structural challenges that followed Brexit. A reduced ability to attract migrant labor affected sectors like agriculture and services, leading to shortages in some industries and changes in supply chains. At the same time, bureaucratic hurdles in importing goods from outside the EU added layers of complexity to trade, while energy price pressures linked to geopolitical events fed into the broader economic environment. Some observers argue that staying within a larger trading framework could help ease these pressures, though the political debate about that path remains contentious. [Economic analyses, 2024]
Loyal Brexiteers and public sentiment
On immigration, patterns have continued to shape political discourse. Official data in recent years show notable inflows from places such as Ukraine and Hong Kong, reflecting humanitarian commitments and global events. The central question for many voters remains whether the government can deliver on its promises while balancing security, labor needs, and economic growth. For some Brexit supporters, the expectation persists that domestic policy will eventually align with the core goals of sovereignty and regulatory control. Yet surveys consistently reveal a mix of confidence and concern among those who voted to leave, with many indicating they would vote along familiar lines if another election or referendum were held. The political dynamics suggest that a portion of the electorate remains cautious about policy shifts and timing, while others are ready to reassess the broader strategic direction of the country. [Public opinion data, 2024]