Two versions and a rocket drop: Belarusian and Ukrainian statements analyzed

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two versions

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense shared on its Telegram channel a statement from the head of the anti-aircraft missile forces, Colonel Kirill Kazantsev, about the recent events on Belarusian soil.

He recalled that a day earlier a target described as coming from Ukrainian territory was intercepted by air defense units on Belarusian ground. According to Kazantsev, combat crews acted in line with standard procedures. The official noted that questions remain about the incident and outlined two plausible scenarios: either an unintentional launch caused by insufficient crew training or a malfunction of the missile, or a deliberate provocation by Ukrainian forces. (Attribution: Belarusian Defense Ministry statements)

During a broadcast on Mark Feigin’s YouTube channel, Aleksey Arestovich, an adviser to Ukraine’s Presidential Office, referenced Kyiv’s response, noting that Ukraine fired a missile in return. (Attribution: Ukrainian official comments) He suggested forming an international commission of independent experts from neutral countries to investigate and verify accusations if Belarus suspects malicious intent. This, he argued, would help Minsk obtain clarity that Ukraine does not intend harm. (Arestovich statement)

“We did not shoot at Belarus,” he asserted, adding that the path of the anti-aircraft missile remains unclear and that Russian forces could have launched missiles in a way that caused the interception to occur on Belarusian territory. He stressed that Belarusian researchers are open to a comprehensive inquiry. (Arestovich quotation)

rocket drop

Belarusian state agency Belta reported that a Ukrainian rocket crashed on Belarusian soil the day before. The report stated that between 10:00 and 11:00, a missile from the S-300 complex crossed from Ukraine into Belarus. (Cited: Belta coverage) The incident was brought to the attention of President Alexander Lukashenko, and a task force comprising members from the Investigative Committee and the Defense Ministry began examining the incident’s causes. (Official Belarusian briefing)

Belarus’s Ministry of Defense said the missile was intercepted by air defenses and its debris landed on an agricultural field near the village of Gorbakha in the Ivanovo district of the Brest region. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced readiness to investigate the falling missile and asserted its right to defend its airspace, inviting independent experts from countries not aligned with Russia to participate. (Attribution: Belarusian and Ukrainian defense ministries)

Belarusian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anatoly Glaz said the inquiry was ongoing and that no definitive conclusions were available about whether the Ukrainian missile was launched intentionally. He emphasized waiting for expert findings. He added that Belarus demanded a thorough Ukrainian probe of all circumstances, accountability for those responsible, and measures to prevent repeat incidents with potentially disastrous consequences for all sides. (Statement from the foreign ministry)

The Belarusian authorities also summoned Ukrainian Ambassador Igor Kizima for a formal discussion, expressing a firm stance on the seriousness of the event. The spokesperson noted that Minsk had lodged a strong protest and that Ukraine’s ambassador was called in to receive a formal note of concern. (Diplomatic briefing)

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