Turbulence stands out as the leading cause of nonfatal injuries among both flight attendants and passengers, a finding supported by data from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and summarized by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. In practical terms, this means that turbulence remains a frequent hazard on modern flights and one of the most common contributors to nonfatal aviation incidents today.
Expert voices in atmospheric science explain how turbulence is categorized by intensity. A professor of atmospheric sciences explains that the scale includes light, moderate, and strong turbulence. This framework helps crew and travelers understand how moving air translates into forces inside the cabin during a flight.
Strong turbulence exerts forces that can exceed the pull of gravity inside the cabin. When seat belts are not fastened, a person can be jolted forcefully against the seat or even be thrown about the cabin. Real-world injuries, including fractures, have occurred in such events, underscoring the importance of wearing seat belts whenever recommended during flight.
There is growing concern among researchers that the frequency and intensity of strong turbulence will rise in coming years. Climate science teams have begun to investigate how changing global temperatures and the behavior of jet streams influence turbulent air patterns. Through advanced computer simulations, researchers project that severe turbulence could become more common, with the potential to double or triple in certain regions during the next few decades. This projection aligns with broader expectations about shifts in atmospheric dynamics as climate conditions evolve.
A subset of turbulence, known as clear sky turbulence, is particularly challenging. It occurs without visible cues such as clouds, storm activity, or precipitation, making it harder to detect and anticipate. Because it lacks obvious visual indicators, clear sky turbulence can surprise passengers and crew, complicating risk management and preventive measures on board.
From the regulatory perspective, investigations into turbulence have highlighted gaps in warning systems. In a period spanning 2009 to 2018, flight crews reported that warnings did not accompany roughly one out of every four turbulence events. This statistic has driven ongoing efforts to improve real-time detection and predictive models. Looking ahead, researchers anticipate that clean air turbulence will become a more prominent factor worldwide, with noticeable increases projected between 2050 and 2080 as atmospheric conditions evolve and airflows respond to broader climatic trends.