The tobacco sector has long prioritized the private market, grappling with a transitional phase away from traditional cigarettes. Yet it remains under intense scrutiny from governments and scientists, and questions arise about how this industry should fit within a hostile social climate. The Nicotine World Forum’s IX edition, held from June 16 to 18 in Warsaw, Poland, highlighted these tensions as speakers debated the path forward.
Globally, tobacco use remains a heavy burden. The World Health Organization reports about 1.3 billion current tobacco users, with the forecast showing a gradual decline over the coming years. The latest figures suggest the total will dip to roughly 1,270 million by 2025, and the majority of users—about 80 percent—live in low- and middle-income countries. These trends underscore the persistent global challenge posed by tobacco consumption and its health consequences.
In Spain, market activity in tobacco products stayed robust in recent years. Official statistics show sales reaching 11.3 billion euros in 2021, reflecting a 2.2 percent rise from the prior year. The volume of cigarettes, including combustion, rolling, or pipe tobacco, stood around 3.975 million units, essentially level with the previous year. The European Health Survey in Spain confirms a notable share of adults who smoke daily, underscoring a continued demand despite ongoing health campaigns and regulatory efforts.
Against this backdrop, the industry’s strategy is evolving. One speaker, Sasha Sadan, the ESG director at the Financial Conduct Authority, pointed out that the sector is in a period of transformation similar to other industries such as energy and meat. He argued that tobacco “originates from a different place,” criticizing the distrustful history this industry carries within society. The 1994 congressional testimony by leaders of major tobacco companies, where nicotine was claimed to be non-addictive, remains a reference point in the ongoing dialogue about public health and corporate accountability.
Today, the industry emphasizes the concept of harm reduction. The conference motto—“Harm reduction is permanent”—frames a shift toward products designed to minimize health harms associated with nicotine consumption. Proponents describe policies aimed at reducing the negative impact of consumption on individuals and society, while acknowledging that the public still perceives nicotine with stigma. A Spanish health ministry report warns about the high toxicity and addictive potential of cigarettes, highlighting the ongoing tension between potential risk reduction and public health concerns.
Michelle Minton of the Competitive Enterprise Institute noted that more research is needed on nicotine’s effects, and Paul Newhouse, a veteran at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, discussed possible medical applications of nicotine in conditions such as dementia and cognitive disorders. These perspectives illustrate the broader debate about nicotine’s role in health and disease beyond traditional smoking habits.
The industry’s response to the health risks revolves around minimizing the act of burning tobacco, a central driver of harm. This has driven decades of investment into alternative products that could replace traditional cigarettes. Today’s landscape features a wide array of options, from electronic nicotine delivery systems and vaping devices to Swedish snus, nicotine patches, smokeless tobacco, and chewing products. Advocates claim these innovations target current smokers and do not aim to recruit new users, though regulatory scrutiny remains intense across markets.
At the core of this transformation is portfolio diversification: moving away from combustion toward products perceived as less harmful while continuing to support consumption of nicotine. Flora Okereke, head of Global Regulatory Forecast and Outlook at British American Tobacco, emphasized that the major players in this field—Philip Morris International, Japan Tobacco International, and Imperial Brands—are guiding this strategic shift while maintaining a strong global footprint.
World Health Organization figures underscore the urgency of the issue: more than 8 million deaths occur annually due to tobacco use, including roughly 7 million from direct consumption and about 1.2 million from secondhand exposure. The organization also notes that tobacco use claims about half of its users when dependence is involved. Despite these staggering numbers, the industry maintains that bans alone will not curb usage and deaths; instead, it argues for a deeper understanding of smoking risk and the policy tools available to reduce harm. A health counselor added that there are risks beyond cigarettes, including other dietary and lifestyle factors, underscoring the complexity of public health messaging around nicotine and tobacco products.