Illicit tobacco remains a salient issue on the global agenda. As crop protection and public health campaigns intensify their push to curb nicotine exposure, the tobacco industry urges policymakers to coordinate action that targets counterfeit trade and aligns taxation with broader public health goals. The aim is to reduce the appeal of tobacco products to international criminal networks by diminishing both the profitability and the perceived safety of illicit goods. In this context, organized crime finds illicit tobacco attractive precisely because it can yield high profits with comparatively lower risk than other contraband markets.
Although coordinated policing in recent years has somewhat dampened the impact of illicit activity, industry stakeholders report renewed efforts to influence European governments. Their strategy emphasizes stronger law enforcement and tax policies designed to shrink the black market and encourage legitimate consumption. Ipsos data cited in recent discussions shows an observable decline in illegal tobacco use in Spain, dipping to 6.7 percent last year, the lowest level since 2011, a shift attributed to evolving consumer habits. Nevertheless, authorities note ongoing challenges as illegal production centers proliferate across Europe, with several key sites in Spain being shuttered through concerted policing and border controls.
During a Brussels gathering reported by EurActiv, tobacco is identified as a central pillar of international crime alongside cocaine, fentanyl, and other illegal drugs. The United Nations, supported by World Bank assessments, estimates illicit trade costs reaching about two million dollars annually, with tobacco accounting for a substantial portion of those losses. Industry observers acknowledge a transition within big-market tobacco consumption: conventional cigarettes are giving way to electronic alternatives, while mounting health concerns continue to pressure manufacturers and distributors toward greater oversight. A 2021 EU illicit consumption estimate from a major consultancy places the figure at approximately 35 billion illicit cigarettes, most of which are tax-free and circulate as part of the illicit economy that fuels organized crime. While these numbers vary, the underlying message remains clear: illicit tobacco undermines public health and state revenue alike, prompting both reforms and enforcement efforts across borders.
Juan Carlos Buitrago Arias, formerly a Brigadier General with the Colombian National Police and now leading StrategosBIP as an advisor, argues that tobacco sits at the heart of the illicit trade because of its profitability and comparatively low operational risk. He identifies Asia as the principal production hub, with China playing a dominant role, while European expansion is being actively pursued. From his vantage point, Panama functions as a global command center for illicit networks, enabling the distribution of tainted and lower-quality products to markets around the world. Arias describes this ecosystem as a web that challenges both legitimate industry players and consumers by delivering goods that are more harmful and less trustworthy than regulated tobacco products.
Opinions from Nicolas Otte, the global head of Philip Morris International’s Anti-Trafficking Operations, highlight a pragmatic view on policing strategies. He notes that Spain has achieved meaningful reductions in illicit tobacco impact through sustained police action, contrasting with France where high taxes and elevated consumer prices have tended to intensify counterfeit activity. Otte advocates for a dual approach: reductions in taxes and stronger enforcement as practical tools in countering organized crime. He points to the price disparity—roughly 10 euros per pack in France versus under 6 euros in Spain—as a driver of illicit market dynamics and stresses the importance of policy choices that do not unintentionally incentivize counterfeiters.
The major transnational tobacco corporations—often grouped as the ‘Big Four’ and including Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco International, and Imperial Brands—continue to shape the public narrative around tobacco. China National Tobacco Corporation stands as the largest single cigarette producer globally but remains state-controlled and primarily serves its domestic market. The industry’s lobbying effort continues to emphasize a public image that portrays its products as safer than illicit tobacco products that lack quality control. Critics, however, argue that the industry bears responsibility for harm reduction through transparent supply chains, robust product standards, and credible anti-smuggling collaborations rather than relying on perception management alone.