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An international assessment offers hopeful signals about the urgent path for global energy. Wind and solar power rose from 10% of global electricity in 2021 to 12% in 2022, according to World Electricity Review 2023, a study by Ember, a nonpartisan energy analytics group. The findings suggest this year could mark an inflection point for fossil fuels in the electricity sector as the sector’s reliance on them starts to decline.

There is record momentum for wind and solar and emissions from electricity may soon hit a low—2022 shows emissions near historical lows, even if they have not yet begun to fall consistently across all regions.

Global emissions from electricity generation dropped to a record low of 436 gCO2 per kWh in 2022, driven by the growth of wind and solar, which rose to 12% of the power mix compared with 10% in 2021.

Across the board, zero-emission electricity sources, including renewables and nuclear, reached an all-time high, contributing 39% of global electricity. Solar power expanded by 24%, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing electricity source for 18 straight years, while wind energy grew by 17%.

Evolution and emission prediction — Blind

More than sixty countries now generate more than 10% of their electricity from wind and solar. Yet other non-emitting sources have dipped as nuclear output declines and fewer new nuclear and hydro projects come online.

Spain leads Europe in renewables, with seven EU countries, including Germany (32%), Spain (33%), and the Netherlands (32%), obtaining around a third or more of their electricity from wind and solar in 2022.

Coal and gas finally reach a turning point

In 2022, emissions from the electricity sector rose by 1.3% to an all-time high, even as the energy mix became cleaner overall due to higher electricity use. The report notes that while coal use increased only 1.1% on the year, the anticipated surge never fully materialized as energy markets shifted.

Coal-generated electricity did not accelerate as feared following COP26 pledges, and the energy crisis did not trigger a large jump in coal burn as feared in many quarters.

Wind and sun reach their destination — verified

Gas-fired electricity generation fell slightly in 2022, by about 0.2%, marking a second decline in three years amid elevated gas prices. The shift away from gas toward coal was modest because gas remained more expensive than coal in 2021. Only 31 GW of new gas plants were built in 2022, the lowest in 18 years. Yet many countries kept coal plants in operation to guard reliability as the transition accelerated.

Wind and solar slowed the pace of emissions growth in the electricity sector, and their adoption is essential for real decarbonization. If all electricity from wind and solar relied on fossil fuels, emissions would be roughly 20% higher in 2022. The clear gap highlights the climate benefit of clean electricity.

In 2022, wind and solar alone accounted for 80% of the global rise in electricity demand, adding 557 TWh out of a total 694 TWh increase. Clean electricity growth is projected to outpace demand in 2023, which would mark the first such instance outside a recession-driven dip.

A real reduction could begin in 2023

With rising electricity demand, experts foresee a small drop in fossil fuel output of about 47 TWh (0.3%) in 2023, followed by larger declines in subsequent years as wind and solar expand. The authors anticipate that the peak of emissions may have already occurred and a new era of decline could unfold in the electricity sector.

2022 is likely to be remembered as a turning point in the transition to clean electricity. The Ukraine crisis prompted governments to rethink energy plans, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and stabilize prices. Electrification has accelerated with more heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electrolyzers, reinforcing the push for faster clean electricity growth.

Coal mine in India — Altaf Kadri/AP

Experts emphasize that a new era is dawning, with emissions from the electricity sector falling as wind and solar scale up. The decade ahead is pivotal for ensuring high growth remains manageable and efficient. Plans must address grid connections, permitting, and market design to integrate wind and solar smoothly.

Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, a senior analyst from Ember, notes that this climate decade signals the end of the fossil fuel era. The world stands at the brink of a clean electricity era, with coal and natural gas expected to decline as wind and solar solidify their lead. Substantial progress will depend on government actions, corporate strategies, and citizen commitments to reach clean electricity targets by 2040.

The Ember analysis covers electricity data from 78 countries, accounting for 93% of global demand, and includes detailed assessments of the top CO2-emitting nations and regions. It also highlights how fast changes can unfold in energy systems as policy and market conditions evolve.

The full content of the Ember report is summarized in the cited materials and attributed to the analysis team.

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