Leadership in Self-Consumption

Spain is undergoing a sweeping expansion of new renewable plants, triggering a historic shakeup across its electricity production system. The rapid rollout of green facilities is reshaping the backbone of power generation and, at the same time, shifting the balance of installed capacity to new record highs, now topping 129,100 megawatts in total as the pace of change accelerates.

The ascent of large ground-mounted solar farms is poised to overtake wind as the country’s leading source of installed capacity. Ground solar installations exceed 29,600 MW, nearly doubling the 15,300 MW registered at the end of 2021, according to Red Eléctrica de España, the operator of the national grid. This growth underscores how quickly solar is reaching scale on a national level.

Solar has already moved ahead of gas-fired plants, taking the role of the second-largest technology by installed power last May. The solar boom in ground-based facilities is set to become the country’s top energy source, eclipsing wind, which currently operates with a combined capacity around 31,500 MW. Both technologies are expanding, but solar deployment is faster and simpler, and industry observers expect the solar share to lead by early 2025.

The shifts in the installed-capacity rankings are accelerating. For more than a decade the technology with the most installed capacity in Spain was the gas-fired combined-cycle plants, which have maintained a steady level around 26,250 MW. Wind overtook them in mid-2020 as the leading technology, and solar recently passed wind. Now the solar installations are nearing the top position as the dominant source of capacity.

The records from Red Eléctrica de España count only ground-mounted solar plants in the installed solar power, with the exception of about 250 MW of large autoconsumo facilities that contribute part of their output to the grid. Generally, autoconsumo is not included in this statistic, because these installations are accounted for as demand savings rather than generation.

If all autoconsumo installations across the country are counted, solar energy would already be the largest installed source in Spain. Autoconsumo setups in homes and businesses add around 8,000 MW, according to industry estimates, which would push total solar capacity to about 37,000 MW, far ahead of other production technologies. Official statistics, however, do not classify autoconsumo in this way due to different accounting rules.

Spain plans to continue a massive expansion of renewables in the coming years to advance decarbonization and meet the green targets agreed with the European Commission. The government has approved the new National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, the PNIEC, updating the roadmap for decarbonizing the economy and boosting clean energy throughout this decade.

A large green plan raises the targets for 2030 to a total installed capacity of 214,200 MW, with green energies dominating and about 81% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources. The plan calls for reaching 76,300 MW of solar energy by 2030, including 19,000 MW of autoconsumo, which will require an accelerated deployment of new installations from the current 29,600 MW of solar plants and around 8,000 MW of autoconsumption already in progress in homes and businesses. The plan also aims to reach 62,000 MW of wind by 2030, up from the current near 31,600 MW.

Power versus production

Installed capacity is a measure of the maximum potential output an installation or technology can deliver under ideal conditions. Renewables, by their nature, depend on wind, sun or water, so their production is often intermittent. Therefore, a large capacity does not always equate to high production. Nuclear plants, for instance, operate with far less capacity but can deliver substantial electricity when needed.

The nuclear reactors currently in operation in Spain have a combined capacity of about 7,100 MW, roughly 5.5% of the total. By comparison, wind accounts for about a quarter, solar around a bit under a quarter, gas roughly 20%, and hydroelectric around 13%. Yet nuclear consistently contributes about 20% of total national production in recent years. The idea that more capacity always means more production is not always true, but the ongoing expansion of renewables is shifting the balance, making green energy a larger share of the electricity mix.

Last year marked a historical milestone as renewables produced more than half of all energy nationwide. For twelve consecutive months, from November of the previous year through October of the current year, solar, wind and hydro generation surpassed other sources. Month after month, clean energy became the majority, and the expectation is that this leadership will endure, aside from occasional hydro constraints during drought periods.

Wind, solar and hydro now generate more energy than the combined output of nuclear, gas and coal plants, a striking shift from just over a decade ago when thermal plants controlled more than 80% of all production. The steady and rapid buildout of renewables is making this majority increasingly entrenched, and analysts believe that the energy mix has shifted toward a durable green predominance, with short-term exceptions mainly tied to hydro availability.