Five of the sixteen climate tipping points may already be triggered, and each additional tenth of a degree in warming increases the odds of crossing them. A new study led by the University of Stockholm, with participation from the University of Exeter and other centers, supports this warning. The researchers conclude that up to ten tipping points could become likely even if global warming is kept below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels by century’s end.
Previously, nine tipping points were known—processes where crossing a threshold would unleash a cascade of effects that make avoiding the worst outcomes harder. The current analysis adds seven more such points, underscoring that there is little to no turning back in many climate processes.
These tipping points arise when changes push parts of the climate system into a self-reinforcing state once a heating threshold is breached.
The North Pole and Antarctica appear to be warming rapidly, a reality captured by footage from diverse sources.
An example of this positive feedback is the loss of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea. Warmer water flows from the Atlantic intensify this effect, altering atmospheric circulation and potentially affecting the broader Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
the situation is getting worse
The latest assessment from the IPCC, the UN’s climate science panel, is the sixth assessment report. It warns of a high to very high risk of tipping points being reached should warming exceed 2ºC, rising with greater temperatures.
At the current global warming level of about 1.1ºC, the study suggests that five of the original sixteen tipping points have already activated. The potential changes include:
one.- Shrinking of the Greenland ice sheet.
two.- Rapid loss of glaciers in West Antarctica.
3.- Sudden thawing of permafrost in perennially frozen regions.
4.- Possible collapse of convection in the Labrador Sea, a newly identified tipping point.
5.- Widespread degradation of tropical coral reefs.
Scientists stress the urgency of cutting emissions to meet the Paris Agreement goals—holding warming below 2ºC and ideally under 1.5ºC by century’s end. Every tenth of a degree matters, as small increments accumulate across the planet’s average temperature.
Future tipping points at 2ºC could include the complete loss of the Amazon forest, the collapse of subglacial basins in East Antarctica, and the collapse of mountain glaciers across the Southern Cone of the Americas.
The study’s authors emphasize that human activities are pushing the world toward two to three degrees of warming by the end of the century. They warn that global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 to have a reasonable chance of meeting the Paris targets while keeping warming below 1.5ºC where possible.
Ricarda Winkelmann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a co-author, highlights the risk of cascading effects from interconnected tipping points. Interactions can lower the temperature thresholds at which individual tipping elements destabilize over time.
In light of these risks, researchers call for strategies to adapt to irreversible changes and to support communities suffering unavoidable losses.
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