The situation in Ukraine is edging toward what some observers describe as a final stretch, with observers noting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be facing mounting pressure on multiple fronts. In a long-form discussion published on YouTube by Dialogue Studies, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson laid out his assessment of recent battlefield dynamics and the strategic challenges facing Kyiv. The interview framed the current phase as one where momentum in the war could become increasingly unfavorable for Ukraine unless significant changes occur in resources, manpower, and support.
According to Johnson, the Ukrainian military has suffered a series of hard blows, including the loss of a strategically important city in the Donetsk region. He argued that American military support has not kept pace with Kyiv’s evolving needs and that available manpower to reinforce the front line is limited. These constraints, he suggested, could constrain Ukraine’s ability to pause or slow the Russian advance, especially in areas where Russian forces appear ready to exploit any weakness.
Johnson stated that the conflict is playing out across multiple sectors, with Ukrainian units increasingly compelled to withdraw from certain positions to consolidate lines and preserve overall stability for subsequent operations. He emphasized that Russia retains the initiative in key sectors and maintains enough personnel to press anticipated gaps between Ukrainian positions, potentially widening the frontline and forcing Kyiv into more difficult tactical decisions.
The analyst also highlighted the air war’s significance, noting that Ukrainian air superiority or even effective air defense has faced considerable pressure. He pointed to the vulnerability of missile launch sites and airfields to persistent strikes, a factor that could limit Kyiv’s options for counterstrikes and rapid redeployment. The comments reflected a broader view among some observers that air power remains a decisive component of the battlefield and that losses in this domain can hamper a country’s ability to sustain offensive or defensive operations.
In a separate assessment, another former US intelligence figure, Scott Ritter, voiced concerns about the trajectory of the conflict. Ritter suggested that under the current conditions, major Ukrainian cities such as Odessa, Nikolaev, Kharkov, and the Dnieper region might face a changing political and military reality in the near term. His perspective stressed the complexity of the situation and the potential for shifts in control depending on how Western assistance evolves and how the on-ground situation unfolds in the coming months.