This year presents a challenging horizon for the toy sector, and the pattern has already shown strain in recent months. After a stretch marked by the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, rising costs, and excess inventory, 2023 is forecast to end with soft exports. A modest national recovery might slow the decline in turnover, but families still face tighter budgets due to inflation and the uncertainty created by regional conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. These projections are industry-led at the national level, and Alicante, which concentrates about forty percent of production, is not expected to diverge from this trend.
Across Europe, the primary buyers of toys, consumer demand has cooled, a trend visible in exports through the middle of 2023, with a gentle uptick by September. Savings accumulated to a modest 0.16 percent, totaling around 458 million euros. If this pattern holds through the final quarter, more than half of annual exports could close the year negatively, with a drop of roughly two to three percent versus the 715 million euros achieved the previous year.
Imports, which rose by 22 percent in 2022, show a sharp retreat of about 15.54 percent through September 2023.
Industry sources indicate that the latest campaign closed with a turnover near 1.699 billion euros, a slight rise of about 0.4 percent. Yet the anticipated drop in exports combined with a serious stock adjustment in 2023 is likely to shave turnover by one to two percent, even as some gains arise in the domestic market.
During the Christmas campaign, Spanish consumers view toys as a basic household need for households with children, a mindset that could push the year into positive territory. The October to December period alone accounts for about sixty percent of annual sales and stands out for its seasonal strength in Europe, markedly higher than Germany and Italy. December typically represents around 43 percent of the year, with the last three weeks contributing 25 to 30 percent of total sales.
Fernando Pérez, director at Circana, emphasizes that the year-end outlook for the Spanish market shows only very modest growth, below one percent. He notes that shoppers are postponing purchases until the last moment, a pattern that can shape the holiday results.
Perez adds that a decline in birth rates is further shaping the market: if spending per child rises by about 211 euros annually, the sector could grow, though this is far below the 331 euros seen in France or 389 euros in Germany. An alternative path would be attracting new buyers, particularly adults, to the category.
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Circana’s leadership highlights categories likely to perform well during the holidays, including building blocks, vehicles, fashion dolls, and electronic pets. One of the year’s most active segments will be the licensed world, reflecting strong appeal to younger audiences. In festive communications, popular licenses such as Paw Patrol, Gabby’s Dollhouse, and Bluey are anticipated to shine, alongside opportunities in the adult segment, which now accounts for about a quarter of total sales and shows sustained growth over many years.
Licenses
The licensed toy segment in Spain reached about thirty-one and a half percent of the market, outpacing the licensed share in Europe, which averages around twenty-seven and a half percent. This strength is expected to persist into Christmas.
Marta Salmón, president of the Association of Spanish Toy Manufacturers, stresses ongoing efforts to counter rising costs and protect consumer affordability. She points out that growth, even if very small, remains a priority in a market facing inflationary pressure.
The head of the association also notes that the Christmas period is crucial for the toy industry, providing a window to introduce strong offerings that entertain children and adults alike, while reinforcing the values of playtime, development, and social well-being. toys are valued for contributing to physical, mental, and emotional growth, a point highlighted as essential in contemporary society.
To cap the year, a panel of experts again selected the best toys of 2023. The awards recognize excellence across traditional categories and celebrate items that promote equality, sustainability, and meaningful play. The belief is that children hold the power to shape the future, a theme echoed by industry voices and retailers alike.