The tourism sector has led the post-pandemic rebound, with 2023 marking a notable recovery. Inflationary pressures did not dampen travel demand; in fact, the airline industry anticipated stronger summer schedules. The Airline Association, ALA, estimates an increase of around 3% in scheduled seating for the season compared with 2019, bringing total capacity to roughly 219 million seats. However, industry observers warn that disturbances in several European hubs could disrupt summer plans. Strikes in France, congestion at Dutch airports, and the broader impact of Brexit in the UK are flagged as potential headwinds that could temper growth.
In Spain, three leading regions are projected to drive strong summer performance: the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, and Andalusia, with estimated capacity gains of 7.8%, 7.4%, and 8.2% respectively over pre-pandemic levels. Madrid and Barcelona, by contrast, are expected to show more modest rises or even declines (3.1% and 7.9% respectively). The traffic mix at Madrid and Barcelona features a higher proportion of business travel and urban commerce, which keeps overall growth in check as travel habits continue to shift. Meetings increasingly take place via videoconferencing and remote work, contributing to a different demand pattern, according to the ALA president, Javier Gandara.
Despite optimistic numbers, industry leaders remain cautious about predicting the exact pace of summer travel. European airports may experience congestion, and there is concern about the ripple effects of a French air traffic control strike on Spain. Eurocontrol reports indicate that Spain has been among the most affected countries, following France, with a significant rise in delayed flights and cancellations in the recent period. The situation raises calls for minimum service levels for flights traversing French airspace, a measure intended to reduce disruption across the region, as noted by Gandara.
The management team for Spain and Portugal also weighed in on the issue, pointing to consequences for carriers and airports. EasyJet highlighted potential reductions in flight numbers by major hubs such as Amsterdam, reflecting a broader continental trend. The United Kingdom presents another challenge, with ongoing concerns about capacity linked to Brexit. Gandara emphasized the possibility of continued problems in several European markets, urging a cautious outlook for the near term.
On a more hopeful note, some industry voices see a positive trajectory toward the end of the year. The expectation is that total traffic could recover to or exceed pre-pandemic levels by year-end. Early post-quarantine traffic was dominated by domestic routes, followed by intra-European and then transcontinental travel, a pattern that has gradually broadened. In Europe, specific contrasts remain clear: Germany shows a 10% to 15% shortfall relative to 2019, while the United Kingdom remains around 2% below those levels. These variances reflect divergent recovery paces across major markets and underline the ongoing shifts in demand and capacity planning across Europe’s aviation network.