There is growing pressure in the taxi industry as a shortage of economy class vehicles tightens supply. Industry observers expect demand to surge through mid-December, with anticipated price increases hitting new highs. This forecast was shared by taxi industry analyst and blogger Egor Ryabkov in discussions with NSN, highlighting a market under strain as winter consumption rises.
Ryabkov emphasized that the shortage affects both the vehicle stock and the pool of available drivers, a situation he describes as a systemic bottleneck touching all fleets and collectors across the sector.
He pointed out that after a long period of stagnation, the market is undergoing a sudden shakeout where regulatory tightening has altered how fleets operate. The emergence of new requirements that apply to both vehicles and drivers is compelling many operators to slow down hiring and fleet expansion, giving rise to a temporary mismatch between capacity and demand.
Present conditions show persistent shortages even with the customary October-to-November dip in demand. The expert cautioned that shortages are likely to reemerge toward the end of the month as the seasonal lift in travel activity begins, creating a tighter supply landscape.
According to Ryabkov, allocations could see a two- to threefold rise in costs as supply constraints tighten further. Fleets facing higher acquisition and maintenance costs are expected to adjust pricing in response to the constrained availability of affordable, economy-class vehicles.
Historically, taxi fleets updated their fleets with relative frequency, but rising vehicle prices now discourage rapid turnover. Operators report that aging fleets are being kept longer while the overall fleet footprint remains constrained, contributing to continued scarcity for customers seeking economy options.
In recent reports, Russian taxi aggregators have confirmed driver shortages and limited access to low-cost cars for on-demand service. For instance, stakeholders noted that demand from riders increased even as the flow of new drivers slowed and the supply of inexpensive vehicles shrank, reinforcing the market’s current disequilibrium.
Former executives in the taxi industry have identified several barriers hindering a shift toward electric vehicles. These obstacles include insufficient charging infrastructure, the high upfront and ongoing costs of electric fleets, and ongoing maintenance concerns that complicate deployment and day-to-day operations for fleets and drivers alike.