Talgo Stock Selloff
Sidenor signals it may pursue a full or partial takeover of Talgo, with potential support from SEPI and other strategic partners. The disclosure was filed with the national securities regulator and signed by chief executive Gonzalo Urquijo Fernández de Araoz. The move has spurred renewed scrutiny of who could ultimately steer the high speed train maker and what role the public sector might play in any future ownership structure. Market observers say the bid dynamics could unfold in ways that involve all sides, from private industry players to regional government entities that have shown interest in Talgo’s long term prospects.
Industry insiders expect the transaction to be led by Sidenor and to include possible direct government participation through SEPI and Basque authorities, both of which have signaled interest in Talgo’s trajectory. There is talk that Criteria, the investment arm of the Caixa Foundation, might join the effort, though the exact structure remains unclear. The interplay between corporate control and state support is drawing attention as stakeholders weigh strategic value against valuation and risk in a sector tied to infrastructure and mobility.
This renewed move to gain control of the high speed train maker comes after the government veto of the Magyar Vagon bid on national security grounds and the fading momentum of Skoda Transportation’s industrial consolidation plans. The regulatory environment and geopolitical considerations are shaping how bidders structure any potential offer and how Talgo’s governance could evolve in the near term.
Talgo Stock Selloff
Following the government’s rejection of the Magyar Vagon offer, valued at €619 million or €5 per share, Talgo’s stock dropped more than 20 percent and traded below €3.50. When reports of a possible new bid circulated, the shares regained ground with notable double‑digit gains. The proposed offer, led by Sidenor with SEPI, the Basque Government, and Criteria, would likely come at a price well below the Hungarian proposal. Market participants noted that €5 per share did not align with the company’s fundamentals and growth profile, prompting some traders to question what a new bid would realistically value Talgo at in today’s market context.
In the 2023 financial year, Talgo reported revenues of €652 million, an EBITDA of €76.5 million, and a net income of €12.2 million. Sidenor, chaired by José Antonio Jainaga, closed the period with revenues of €930 million, an EBITDA of €60.6 million, and a net income of €49.7 million. The Basque group also faced a drop in steel demand from the automotive sector during the year, highlighting how cyclical demand can influence profitability and deal sentiment amid takeover chatter.
Takeover via a Public Offer
Although the exact mechanism remains undetermined, the public takeover offer route is gaining attention as a potential path. Talgo is majority controlled by Pegasus, a consortium formed by Trilantic and entrepreneur Juan Abelló, which holds 40 percent and has acted as the principal negotiator of the Magyar bid. If the consortium dissolves, separate share sales could follow, although prevailing industry view suggests any exit would occur through a full OPA for 100 percent of Talgo, setting a clean, company‑wide transfer of control in motion.
Beyond this, Spanish takeover rules require any purchase of more than 30 percent of a listed company to trigger an offer for the entire firm. Even if SEPI, the Basque Government, and Criteria act independently and do not cross the threshold, the regulator could interpret a concerted arrangement and require a full OPA, effectively compelling a broader ownership change beyond initial investors. The regulatory framework thus remains a central variable in any tailwind or hurdle for Talgo’s future ownership path.