The Basque industrial group Sidenor, which confirmed last Wednesday its plan to acquire a partial or full stake in Talgo, is drafting an industrial roadmap for the Spanish train maker to persuade the Basque Government and SEPI to join the operation by purchasing minority share blocks. For now, José Antonio Jainaga, head of the Basque group, intends to hold up to 29.9 percent stake, a level that would place him at the helm of the group and give Sidenor influence over Talgo’s future trajectory. In recent discussions, the aim is to map a path that secures governance influence without triggering a full public takeover, while ensuring Talgo retains its strategic independence within a broader Basque and national industrial framework. The plan also considers how to align Talgo’s long term strategy with regional priorities, safeguarding jobs and reinforcing industrial roots in Euskadi while enabling up to a controlling position for Sidenor to guide decisions about production, modernization, and export opportunities.
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Among the plan, Sidenor does not aim for a full public takeover bid on all shares. Instead, it seeks a controlling stake that would grant Talgo ownership stability it has not enjoyed since 2022, when Pegaso Transportation, a consortium formed by Trilantic, the Oriol family, and Juan Abelló, activated its sale and gave Lazard and Citi a mandate to find a buyer. The group views such stability as essential to implement a sustained industrial program that can translate Talgo’s backlog into actual production, while keeping a careful eye on governance, capital structure, and strategic alignment with Basque economic objectives. The proposed route would also facilitate coordination with national authorities on infrastructure and export strategy as demand for high speed and regional trains grows in Europe and North America.
Once that prized stability is achieved, the next step would be to launch an industrial program to tackle one of Talgo’s major challenges, its limited production capacity to fulfill a backlog that has reached record levels above four billion euros. The Basque Industry Minister, Mikel Jauregi, has demanded a robust and forward-looking plan for the company, along with guarantees on employment and the retention of industrial roots in Euskadi. If these conditions are met, the Basque Government said it would back this operation and the option, stressing that these guarantees are essential for entry. The envisioned program would cover capacity expansion, potential automation, workforce training, and supplier ecosystem improvements to ensure timely delivery, while preserving the company’s cultural ties with the Basque region and its role in regional innovation ecosystems.
Agreement with Pegaso
Moving the deal forward smoothly will require one more balancing act: securing an agreement with Pegaso to acquire only part of its 40 percent stake rather than the full holding, which would force Sidenor to launch a takeover of the entire capital. Another option would be to unwind the consortium and let Trilantic, Abelló, and/or the Oriol family sell their shares individually. Price is another factor. It should be recalled that the Hungarian consortium Magyar Vagon offered five euros per share in its bid, valuing Talgo at 619 million euros, a figure the Basque group does not expect to reach. The negotiations are likely to hinge on achievable governance structures, the pace of capital injections, and the assurance of continuity for Talgo’s workforce and its production footprint in Spain and Europe.
At the moment, the percentage of capital that the Basque government would take through the autonomous public fund Finkatuz and the central government through SEPI remains undefined. The plan envisions equal steps to buy the remaining 10 percent of Pegaso that Sidenor does not acquire and to exit the consortium entirely. Although the entry of several industrial partners is not ruled out, the plan is for Sidenor to remain the sole private investor to lead the company. The framework would set clear milestones on investment rounds, governance rights, and employment commitments to satisfy both regional authorities and Talgo’s existing shareholders while keeping the operation financially sustainable and strategically coherent with the broader European rail market agenda.
A Perfect Match
Dealing successfully would set the course for the national manufacturer, which in recent months has faced shareholding instability and a string of incidents and delays in delivering its latest train model, the S-106, popularly known as Avril, entering service. For Sidenor, it would mean diversification from its current heavy reliance on the European automotive sector, a field under pressure from Chinese competition and the uncertainties surrounding the rise of electric vehicles. A successful alliance would also signal a shift toward a more balanced industrial portfolio, with Talgo becoming a centerpiece in a broader Basque rail technology strategy that includes suppliers, service networks, and after sales support that could benefit regional R&D and training programs. The strategic fit hinges on maintaining Talgo’s brand and technical autonomy while leveraging Sidenor’s manufacturing capabilities and financial discipline to scale production and meet global demand.
The stock has rebounded about 15% from its lows
The shares have shown solid momentum in recent sessions, rising more than 15% in just three days. Before the government veto on the Magyar Vagon bid, Talgo traded above 4.3 euros, but subsequently fell below 3.4 euros. After news of Sidenor’s formal interest emerged, the stock rose above 3.83 euros, valuing the Madrid-listed manufacturer at around 474 million euros, still well short of the 619 million euros offered by the Hungarian bid. Market observers note that Sidenor’s approach could inject stability into Talgo’s capital structure and potentially unlock a more constructive dialogue with lenders, suppliers, and customers, provided that the production plan and employment commitments are perceived as credible and enforceable by all parties involved. Investors will be watching for updates on financing terms, government participation, and the pace at which production capacity could scale to meet demand in Europe and beyond.
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