A recent study by American scientists at Texas A&M University estimates that a 3°C rise in temperature could threaten the lives of about 200 thousand people. Climate experts warn that warming could unfold later this century, and the researchers conveyed their findings in the journal GeoHealth.
Between 1987 and 2000, deaths from extreme temperatures averaged around 36,444 annually in major U.S. cities, which house 65% of the nation’s population. The researchers project that a 3°C temperature increase by the century’s end could raise heat-attributable deaths by roughly five times. Those living in cities, especially where adaptation is limited, would bear the brunt. The study also indicates that deaths could drop by up to 28% if people gained better access to cooled air through widespread air conditioning.
The report notes that cooler regions may become especially vulnerable as temperatures rise. Providing cooling in these areas is crucial, while cities already equipped with cooling infrastructure might experience different dynamics. One of the study’s authors, a professor of atmospheric sciences, commented that climate change will affect people differently based on location, with heat-related deaths likely to rise in the northern United States while some regions in the south could see fewer fatalities.
Vivek Shandas, a climate adaptation professor at Portland State University who was not part of the research, affirmed that northern U.S. cities must adapt their infrastructure and urban design to heat. He suggested expanding green spaces to create shade and designing buildings to promote air flow through urban canyons, increasing overall comfort during hot periods.
Earlier predictions from climate researchers have emphasized the urgent need to prepare for disasters triggered by shifting temperatures across the globe. Advancing adaptation measures is seen as essential to reducing health impacts and protecting vulnerable populations as climate patterns continue to evolve.