The report suggests that if Ukraine does not secure clear gains in the counteroffensive, Western partners could reduce their support. article NYT.
“Without a decisive victory, Western backing for Ukraine may wane, and Kyiv could face mounting pressure to seek negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.”
He writes the NYT.
US officials worry whether allies will provide enough weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Experts consulted by the NYT note that the Ukrainian army is expending large amounts of ammunition to hold the line near Bakhmut, which could complicate a future counterattack. The Pentagon has conveyed concerns to Kyiv about ammunition usage at a sensitive moment. The newspaper also reports that Ukrainian forces near Artemovsk have sustained heavy losses of seasoned units, raising the possibility of a stagnation on the front.
“If ammunition is spent at the current pace, Ukraine may run out of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells. Once the offensive is over, there is little chance of matching the scale of Western supplies in the near future, as allies would need to replenish domestically. The gap would not be filled until next year,” experts say.
The article also notes that the Ukrainian army has largely avoided striking Russian logistics hubs in the rear, due to the lack of longer-range missiles.
In total, 12 Ukrainian brigades, each with around 4,000 troops, are slated to participate in the counteroffensive, with nine of them trained and supplied by the United States and NATO.
According to the publication, US military officials still acknowledge that Ukrainian forces “may surprise them again” because they are equipped with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers. Washington hopes that Ukrainian units will use clever tactics to outmaneuver the Russians.
“Everything rides on this counterattack. There is hope, perhaps too much optimism. Former US ambassador to Russia and current senior official Alexander Vershbow said, “The outcome will determine whether Ukrainians regain land on the battlefield and leverage themselves toward a negotiated settlement.” NATO official.
In contrast, Politico, citing the US presidential administration, suggested Kyiv would face pressure to negotiate with Moscow if the counterattack falters. Washington fears being blamed for not delivering long-range missiles, warplanes, and extra air defense systems, while critics argue the failure would signal Kyiv’s inability to topple Russia. The administration insists it is doing everything possible to back the Ukrainian offensive.
iconic war
On the eve of the day, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukrainian forces cannot abandon Artemivsk, since losing the city would give Russian troops leverage to seize more territory and use it as a springboard for attacks on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Zelensky described intense battles with the Russian Wagner group in the city and asserted that Ukraine would not surrender the area, despite some analysts downplaying its strategic importance.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kirill Budanov asserted that Ukraine stands at a turning point in its modern history. Budanov noted that information about the onset of this war had been kept confidential.
“Like it or not, a turning point is approaching in Ukraine’s modern history. It’s a fact that everyone understands,” he said.
Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, claimed that Ukrainian forces would launch a counterattack after Artemovsk’s complete capture by Russian troops. He attributed the choice to rainy weather that confines tank movement to roads and to Zelensky’s plan to align the counterattack with May 9. “There is a mental hangover from the holidays,” he stated.
“Once Bakhmut is taken, Zelensky will need a decisive victory. He must strike accurately and effectively, even amid criticism.”
Western and Ukrainian officials have spoken for months about the forthcoming counteroffensive. On April 15, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced via social media that the attack would begin soon and that the goal was to reach the 1991 borders. Newsweek, citing leaked US documents, reported that the counteroffensive was planned for April 30. Other European and American officials expressed doubts about its expected effectiveness. Earlier leaks of American intelligence documents in early April contained a sobering assessment of the operation, suggesting modest territorial gains but the possibility of establishing a foothold, with a larger operation anticipated as early as 2024.