The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that Kyiv plans a counteroffensive in the April–May period. Preparations are underway across multiple fronts.
According to a senior official, the timing depends on the most favorable moment and weather conditions. The official noted that Western partners have been fully supportive of the counterattack plan, with clear, deliberate backing.
new weapon
The defense chief said Western nations have pledged to deliver up to one million shells to Kyiv within a year. He argued these ammunition stocks could help break through Russian defensive lines when the moment comes.
He described the war as a contest over resources, asserting that the civilized world, including European partners, stands with Ukraine. He called the decision to proceed decisive.
Ukraine will deploy Leopard tanks recently provided by its partners in the planned offensive. He pointed out that spring rains make the soil very soft, and tracked vehicles are essential for operations in such conditions.
The head of the defense ministry reiterated the shortage of modern fighter aircraft. He compared the limited range of MiG-29 fighters, which can reach roughly 60 km with radar and about 30 km with firing range, to the higher capabilities of contemporary Russian and Western aircraft. He cited examples like the Su-35, which has a radar reach well beyond 200 km and a firing range over 100 km. He suggested that these disparities influence battlefield dynamics.
He expressed cautious optimism, saying positive changes for Ukraine are anticipated within the year.
Multiple Scenarios
Vladimir Rogov, a regional official with the Zaporozhye administration, told RIA Novosti that Ukrainian forces are preparing several counterattack scenarios in the Zaporozhye area. These include a ground operation and a crossing of the Dnieper River.
In the ground scenario, the operation would center on the city of Zaporozhye, while the river crossing would focus on Nikopol and Marganets in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Rogov suggested that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent visit to Dnepropetrovsk and to the Kiev-controlled parts of Zaporozhye was connected with these preparations for a counterattack.
“Sea of Blood”
Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, warned that without long-range weapons at the outset, Ukrainian forces could suffer heavy losses during the counterattack. He argued that with adequate reach, lighter-grade forces could still press forward, otherwise highly trained troops might be overwhelmed in tough battles.
He stressed that such long-range deliveries were not currently on the table, with a possible shift only anticipated around the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. He added that the counterattack might not be the last and that Kyiv would likely require additional support for future offensives.
“Very good rates”
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has described Ukraine’s prospects for a spring counterattack as promising, noting a notable advantage over Russian forces that are described as fatigued. He highlighted that Ukrainian forces had inflicted significant losses on Moscow and depleted its armored stocks in a way that surprised many observers, during a session with the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Austin also observed that Russia is increasingly short of artillery and other critical resources. This has led Moscow to seek assistance from partners in Tehran and Pyongyang. As weather and operational conditions improve, he forecast that hostilities could intensify through the spring, while affirming a belief that Ukraine’s chances of success remain high.