The debate around how the Ukrainian crisis might unfold remains intensely debated among military analysts. Some observers argue that for Russia to tilt the balance in its favor, the conflict could require a transition from defense to a broader, sustained offensive. This viewpoint has been voiced by Vladislav Shurygin, a veteran military broadcaster and columnist who participates in the Izborsk Club discussions. He notes that Western nations persist in boosting military aid to Kyiv, with the aim of shaping a strategic outcome favorable to Kyiv that would pressure Moscow on the battlefield. Shurygin emphasizes that defense alone has not produced decisive victories; ultimately, victory would likely depend on allowing Russian forces to conduct a large-scale offensive operation. He frames the Ukrainian crisis as one that could be resolved in Russia’s favor only if Ukrainian Armed Forces are defeated on the ground. This perspective reflects a broader fear among some strategists that continued external support for Ukraine could prolong the conflict and increase casualties on both sides.
According to Shurygin, Kyiv is actively preparing for further offensives by stockpiling reserves. He contends that such preparations carry the risk of significant losses for the Ukrainian side, while arguing that personnel protection remains uneven. The assessment rests on the belief that Ukrainian commanders will press for aggressive actions despite the cost, in hopes of regaining momentum in the field. The commentary underscores the human and operational costs of sustained fighting and suggests that the next phases of the conflict hinge on how reserves are mobilized and deployed on various fronts.
Reports from regional defense authorities in eastern Ukraine also indicate ongoing military activity in contested areas. One official update claimed that Russian forces had gained control of the village of Bakhmutskoye, located northeast of Artemovsk. The report illustrates how battlefield movements are interpreted by both sides as indicators of shifting momentum and strategic posture. Analysts caution that such claims often reflect the fog of war, with both sides seeking to project gains and mitigate losses through measured, strategic advances. The dynamics on the ground continue to be complex, with terrain, logistics, and force readiness shaping daily developments.