In a room where the United States and Japan gather their foreign and defense ministers, the outcome seems predictable: a tightening of military cooperation to address China’s growing influence. This takes place in Tokyo ahead of the Quad summit, a cornerstone of Washington’s strategy to curb Beijing on its own doorstep.
What unfolds are the so-called two-plus-two talks: Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara, Japan’s foreign minister and defense minister, meeting with their American counterparts, Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin. They fly across the globe to reaffirm bilateral military commitments for Japan, even as the presidential race shifts in the United States. Continuity appears likely while Kamala Harris remains a central figure and Asian partners begin to voice concerns about a potential Trump presidency.
The joint statement does not inject fresh elements into the Atlantic line on China. It describes China as the single largest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific and across the globe, noting its effort to reshape the international order for its own benefit and at the expense of others. The document underscores the use of political, economic, and military coercion to influence other countries, businesses, and civil society. This framing signals a need to deepen military collaboration and boost U.S. weapon production in Japan.
Among the new commitments is a stronger presence in Nansei, the archipelago near Taiwan, and a clarification that the concept of extended deterrence includes nuclear weapons, despite Tokyo’s historical reticence. This is not a minor issue for Japan, the only country to have suffered nuclear damage, where public opinion continues to weigh on government decisions. As explained by Austin, nuclear deterrence will also cover the Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu in Mandarin, a dispute asserted between Tokyo and Beijing. There is little apparent margin for Washington and Tokyo to scale back their military cooperation.
Taiwan sits at the center of regional attention. The United States maintains more than 50,000 troops in Japan since World War II, with a significant presence in Okinawa, and operates a robust naval and air defense. In April, Japan and the United States agreed to pursue joint missile production and Japan’s role in sustaining and repairing U.S. military hardware. The latest agreement ends a historical anomaly, removing the need for U.S. troops to be commanded from Indo-Pacific headquarters in Hawaii, thereby speeding up operations in a regional conflict scenario. This shift, noted by Austin, stands as the most consequential reform for the U.S. forces stationed in Japan in seven decades, strengthening collective deterrence.
Blinken’s Asia itinerary also includes meetings with counterparts from India and Australia, both members of the Quad, and an end stop in the Philippines, which has recently faced tensions with China in contested waters. This diplomatic push coincides with a visit to Saint Petersburg by Admiral Hu Zhongming, head of the Chinese Navy, to attend a Russian military celebration. Beijing and Moscow have carried out joint exercises off China’s southeast coast this month, cited by Western foreign ministries as evidence of deeper strategic cooperation between the two powers. These dynamics contribute to a regional tableau that is increasingly tense, with Washington and Tokyo presenting a central axis for security in the Indo-Pacific and implications for regional stability and allied cohesion. [Citation: Strategic Analysis]