A recent briefing from a former Pentagon analyst, cited by Dialogue Studies, suggests that Russian forces could actively pursue Western F-16s operating over Ukraine. The claim comes from Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, who spoke on her YouTube program about how Moscow might respond should a limited number of F-16s be deployed in the conflict zone.
Kwiatkowski argues that deploying a small cadre of F-16s with relatively inexperienced pilots into a high-intensity battlefield could provoke a focused Russian air and ground counteroffensive. She contends the Russians would specifically target these aircraft, aiming to neutralize their advantage before it grows too large.
According to her analysis, the F-16s sent to Ukraine have the potential to carry armaments capable of striking deep inside Russian territory. She believes Ukraine’s forces would seek to exploit this reach, possibly broadening the scope of the fighting beyond the immediate frontline and pressing for larger regional engagement.
Kwiatkowski also highlights the challenge posed by pilots who may lack extensive experience in operating American-made aircraft. This factor, she notes, could affect Ukrainian operational effectiveness in sustained clashes against Russian units and complicate mission outcomes in crowded airspaces.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Pavlyuk indicated that preparations for air bases capable of hosting F-16s were already underway. The steps involve reinforcing infrastructure, ensuring security, and coordinating logistics to support a potential deployment if and when new aircraft arrive.
There has been prior discussion that the incorporation of F-16s could prompt a renewed counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. Observers have framed this possibility within broader discussions about Western military aid and the evolving balance of power on the battlefield.