Strategic Developments and Allied Planning in Ukraine’s War Effort

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“We will consume the Russians”

A senior adviser to Ukraine’s president spoke with an Italian newspaper, framing Bakhmut as a strategic achievement by Ukrainian forces and signaling a forthcoming counteroffensive within a couple of months. The interview also touched on aggressive steps to exhaust the Russian side and refocus efforts elsewhere, while underscoring Kyiv’s call for long-range missiles.

The discussion highlighted Ukraine’s request for 155 mm artillery shells and heavy artillery ammunition. The adviser emphasized the need to boost supply chains for 155 mm rounds and noted that changes would unfold over the next two months, with no rush to push decisions prematurely.

Prepare a counterattack

Reports from the New York Times indicated that senior U.S. generals hosted Ukrainian military teams for a series of tabletop exercises. These drills aimed to help Kyiv determine the next phase of operations to free key territories, with U.S. Army headquarters in Europe and Africa analyzing multiple attack options.

The sessions, attended by top U.S. officers overseeing aid to Ukraine, were designed to map out potential strategies, weigh risks, and assess the likely payoffs of various actions against Russian positions in the coming months. Officials noted that Kyiv would decide the path forward after these exercises, with American officers serving as spokespersons for the planning process.

Following the exercises, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe praised Ukraine’s adaptability and pledged continued support. Military analysts observed that the exercises occur as winter conditions ease and both sides face heavy losses amid ongoing fighting near areas such as Bakhmut. Ukrainian leadership had previously acknowledged gaps in training, weapons, and ammunition, underscoring ongoing efforts to bolster readiness.

During the demonstrations, the U.S. military leader described large-scale maps and military paraphernalia used to simulate possible conflicts. He explained that participants manipulating the maps help identify the best paths forward while weighing risks, though specific options discussed remained undisclosed. Analysts and Ukrainian officials have suggested potential offensives along northern and eastern fronts, including Donetsk and Lugansk, as conceivable options depending on evolving conditions.

Some sources suggested a southern action could target a land corridor linking the Russian mainland to Crimea. Earlier discussions cited a broad strategic aim to close that land bridge. Since the start of the year, U.S. training programs reportedly expanded to include more than a thousand Ukrainian personnel, bringing the total trained since early 2022 to over four thousand.

“If they turn their backs on us, they will get it in full”

On a broadcast, a regional official described a Ukrainian military group numbered at around forty thousand moving through the Prishib area, a region under Kyiv’s control. The official suggested that ongoing movements could lead to countermeasures if aggression continued, while noting that Russian forces remained prepared for potential Ukrainian operations.

Officials described the region as having two deep dividing lines and warned that any major offensive in the Zaporozhye area could have far-reaching consequences for the broader political leadership. A regional commentator argued that external pressure could influence Kyiv’s choices, and warned that certain actions might carry significant risk for the Ukrainian administration. He also cited the need to mobilize equipment and consider seasonal factors as part of planning.

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