START Reconsideration and Russia’s Suspension of the Treaty

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Air Force General Anthony Cotton, who leads the U.S. Armed Forces Strategic Command, expressed a cautious optimism about Russia rejoining the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms. He spoke during a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, outlining his view that a return to the START framework would be beneficial for strategic stability, even as he warned that hope alone does not constitute a plan or a path forward. Cotton emphasized that the U.S. seeks predictability and verifiable limits on nuclear forces, noting that the absence of formal participation by Moscow creates uncertainty about the trajectory of arms control and the potential implications for allied security. He described START as a foundational element of global strategic security architecture and urged Russia to engage constructively, while also underscoring that the U.S. will pursue treaties and measures that strengthen deterrence and reduce risk across the alliance. The general was clear that any renewal of agreements requires concrete steps and reciprocal transparency, and he argued that long-term stability hinges on verifiable reductions and reliable compliance, rather than rhetoric or unilateral moves. In summarizing the position, Cotton conveyed a pragmatic stance: dialogue should proceed, but it must be anchored in verifiable data, enforceable mechanisms, and a shared understanding of national and allied security interests. The hearing highlighted the tension between desire for resumed collaboration and the real-world hurdles that accompany strategic negotiations, including verification regimes, implementation timelines, and the evolving security environment. Cotton’s remarks thus positioned START within a broader strategic calculus, where alliance cohesion, strategic deterrence, and the credibility of U.S. commitments contribute to reducing the likelihood of miscalculation in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

In the wake of recent moves from Moscow, February 28 brought notice of Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms. The law, signed by President Vladimir Putin, marks a formal step away from the agreement that had governed limits on strategic arsenals. Putin had signaled this course of action during his February 21 address to the Bundestag, arguing that Moscow must first understand how the remaining nuclear powers in the NATO alliance — particularly France and Britain — intend to manage their strategic forces before resuming discussions linked to the New START framework. The decision reflects a broader assessment in which Russia seeks greater clarity on potential changes to arms control, verification protocols, and the potential consequences for strategic balance. Supporters of the suspension suggest that Russia is testing the readiness of allied states to adapt to a shifted deterrence landscape, while critics warn that moving away from established treaties could invite renewed arms racing and increased risk for global security. As Moscow reorients its approach toward strategic weapons, the question remains how Washington and its partners will respond, whether through renewed negotiation, alternative verification methods, or a strategic shift in posture intended to preserve deterrence and security in an era of evolving technological capabilities and geopolitical competition.

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