Recession looms, yet many leaders describe it as soft and brief. A global survey conducted for KPMG’s CEO Outlook 2022 found that a large majority of Spanish CEOs expect a downturn in the next year, with 96% forecasting an economic slowdown. However, 64% of them believe the downturn will be mild and short-lived. The study gathered input from 1,325 chief executives worldwide, including 50 Spanish leaders from companies with annual revenues over $500 million.
In Spain specifically, 86% of respondents anticipate that a new recession would slow growth further. After the pandemic, about one in five respondents (22%) expect their own company’s revenues to fall by at least 10% under that scenario. Those projections translate into the job market: 52% report frozen hiring, 48% have considered reducing staff, and 38% plan to cut headcount in the coming six months.
These outlooks come at a time when the government lowered its growth forecast for the next year by six-tenths, to 2.1%, with the Bank of Spain and the International Monetary Fund projecting 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.
Despite the cautious medium-term view, Spanish executives remain hopeful: 98% express confidence in the growth prospects of the national economy and their own organizations over the next three years, and 72% expect their workforce to expand in that period.
Juanjo Cano, president of KPMG in Spain, notes that Spanish chiefs are cautiously watching the economy in the near term while taking decisive steps to shield their firms in an environment marked by uncertainty and volatility, echoing warnings from the IMF. He stresses that top leaders rely on solid medium-term economic trajectories and strategic agendas that prioritize ongoing transformation, with particular emphasis on digital modernization and enhancing the employee value proposition.
When asked about immediate actions, many Spanish leaders have recalibrated pricing to cover rising costs (70%), improved operational efficiency (58%), and relocated activities to optimize supply chains (54%), which may compress profit margins in the short term but support resilience.
Supply chain
Supply chain reliability stands out as a top governance concern for a larger share of Spanish executives, with one in five naming it as their primary worry.
Short-term planning also calls for strategic recalibration. Globally, 77% of CEOs paused or redirected their digital transformation strategies. In Spain, the share is 58%, reflecting a slower digital acceleration but still a clear focus. For one in four Spanish leaders (24%), advancing digital transformation and business connectivity remains the top operational priority for meeting growth targets over the next three years.
Geopolitical uncertainty has also sharpened the focus on cybersecurity. About 68% of Spanish CEOs report heightened concern about cyber risks. Notably, the share of executives who feel their organizations are not adequately prepared has risen by 18 points since 2021, reaching 30% in Spain.
Beyond digital initiatives, attracting and retaining talent remains central. The most emphasized driver is the employee value proposition, cited by 24% of respondents, along with ongoing efforts to navigate inflation and rising living costs that threaten talent retention—three-quarters of Spanish CEOs (76%) acknowledge this impact.
Corporate responsibility is increasingly central to strategy as well. Half of Spanish leaders (52%) believe ESG programs have contributed to better financial results, a small but meaningful uptick from the previous year. Interest in transparency about ESG activities has surged—from 58% in 2021 to 74% in the current edition—reflecting rising stakeholder demand for clear reporting.
In confronting a potential recession, Spanish CEOs are reevaluating their ESG plans and other strategic areas. About 48% have paused or reconsidered ESG initiatives, and 46% indicate they will review these plans within the upcoming six months, signaling a flexible approach that aligns with evolving market conditions.