September 23 marks the deadline for forming a new government in Spain, otherwise elections must be repeated. The July 23 results reflect a busy summer of negotiations, yet polls show no surprise winner among the two largest parties, PSOE and PP.
Logically, both parties will seek support from left and right, balancing alliances with regional, nationalist, and pro-independence groups that are likely to shape the Cortes once the new administration takes office.
Legislative work will pause until the government is established. Some see it as advantageous; others worry about stalled progress. Roughly 216 proposals and bills are either ready for a vote or languishing in committees, awaiting action or expiration. Four concrete examples are detailed on the congress website:
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Measures to ease the switch from variable to fixed rate home loans, proposed by Podemos
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Law on the protection of workers’ constitutional rights, submitted by Vox
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Improvements to protect living organ donors for future transplants, presented by PSOE
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Royal Decree Amendment Act 29/2021, adopted on December 21, 2021, which introduced emergency energy measures to promote electric mobility, solar self-consumption, and renewable energy distribution; accelerating the conversion of internal combustion engine vehicles to electric or fuel cell powered models, and retrofitting; submitted by PP
In a country with vibrant legislative activity, the Official State Gazette writes loudly. Local bulletins and regional governments will also prepare for the ballot as councils and parliaments are renewed. A short bureaucratic pause will precede the 15th legislature and the new democratic cycle.
noise and promises
Expect a chorus of noise, sharp disqualifications, and ambitious financial pledges. The ghosts of past scares will be revived. Campaigns will frame each side as the best or the worst. Attention will swing around topics such as a four-day workweek, the notion of a universal salary, and even quirky promises like cinema snacks or tickets emerging in political discourse.
Macroeconomic data will be interpreted with the crowd in mind. For Pedro Sánchez, two pivotal dates will matter for comparisons. He took office on June 2, 2018 after a no-confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy, and he led the government again after the elections of January 7, 2020.
As Spain navigates the postpandemic era and faces the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the government will lean on the improving economy. In his public remarks, the prime minister may present evidence that Spain maintains relatively low inflation for its region and has kept social peace through higher spending, which has raised debt toward roughly 115 percent of GDP. Tax increases in the program are framed as necessary to smooth the postpandemic transition. European aid will continue to shape the economy, while parties like Unidas Podemos, Sumar, or coalitions involving Sumar Podemos will be compared against the economic plans proposed by the current partners in government.
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Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the PP may push for an extended dialogue. He might point to fiscal policies in Madrid and Andalusia as a model, arguing for tighter public spending, lower taxes to stimulate consumption and private investment, and a willingness to pursue structural reforms. He could position himself as pro-business and supportive of regional autonomy, while acknowledging populist currents that may surface and promising targeted subsidies where useful.
Election season could be here sooner than expected. Most voters will not decide solely on pocketbook issues or the economy. On July 23, some voters will back the yes votes on specific laws, the transgender law, or citizen safety. Others will choose based on the candidates’ demeanor, the level of confidence they project, or the arrogance they inadvertently reveal.