Government analysts project that the labor market will build on the solid progress seen in recent months, a momentum fostered by the temporary pause at the end of the previous year. The Social Security administration released its mid-month forecast this Monday, aligning with its routine update and calculating how the fourth month of the year is expected to close on average. The projection shows 220,000 more active workers than the previous month, with a total around 20.5 million employed individuals.
If the scenario modeled by José Luis Escrivá unfolds, Spain could record its strongest April in the historical series. This follows a remarkable March in current statistics, when net job creation surpassed 200,000.
The recruitment surge is partly explained by the Easter hiring drive, which contributes to the vitality of job growth. Yet the ministry stresses that only a portion of these strong numbers can be attributed to seasonality, underscoring a broader underlying momentum.
Synthesizing Escrivá’s calculations and applying a careful adjustment to strip out purely temporal fluctuations, net job creation stands at 135,616 new positions. This marks a record slightly below the previous month but notably above the average of the last quarter. In other words, job creation is on an upward trajectory and gaining momentum despite persistent inflationary pressures and assorted challenges linked to financial tensions and geopolitical strife.
Spain traditionally approaches its strongest employment period, with the labor market often hitting a spring peak after the January lull and seasonal hiring. Post-holiday adjustments and early-course reorganizations set the stage, and companies typically intensify their recruitment from March, with Easter timing shaping the pace and intensity.
Most of the hiring activity persists into the middle of the year, as August arrives and firms adjust their workforces ahead of the late-year slowdown, with the last quarter typically bringing a softer pace of job creation.