According to sources, the inflation rate rose again for the third consecutive month in September, reaching 3.5%. This marks nearly a point higher than the 2.6% rate recorded in August. The CPI leading indicator released this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics highlights that the September increase is primarily driven by higher electricity prices and, to a lesser extent, by other energy-related costs that influence consumer budgets. The rise aligns with what INE had anticipated in its statement, reinforcing the perception that energy costs remain a key driver of price growth in the period.
The market had expected September inflation to be 3.5%. This figure would stand as the highest since April, when inflation peaked at 4.1%, and it remains provisional pending INE’s official release. The exact data for October will be published on October 13, and that release will detail the monthly variation across price categories, including food. The provisional nature of the September figure underscores the ongoing process of data collection and revision that accompanies official CPI reporting.
Looking back to September 2022, electricity prices showed a decline compared with August, with electricity down roughly 17% and fuels down about 1.2%. In contrast, September 2023 saw the reverse pattern: energy products contributed to higher consumer costs as their weight in household expenditures grows. While the average price per kilowatt declined modestly, the month still experienced an overall price increase, with preliminary data suggesting a roughly 7% rise year over year for energy-related costs on a per-consumer basis as September progressed.
The energy price trend in September 2023, combined with the base effect, explains much of the 0.2% monthly rise in the CPI versus August. This comes after a prior month of a 0.7% decrease in September 2022, helping to push the annual inflation rate up to 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile energy and unprocessed food prices, continued to ease in September by about three tenths, landing at 5.8%. This marks the lowest core inflation rate observed since June 2022 and provides a nuanced view of price movements in non-energy segments.
From a policy standpoint, the government notes that an overall inflation rate of 3.5% positions the country among those with comparatively low inflation and solid growth within the Eurozone over an extended period. The Ministry of Economy argues that the economic policy measures enacted by the government support the competitiveness of firms, help expand market share, and increase the purchasing power of wages. In this interpretation, inflation dynamics are seen not only as a price story but also as a sign of favorable macroeconomic momentum that could influence future policy decisions. [Cited: INE and government publications].
Readers looking for a broader context may consider how these inflation dynamics compare with North American trends, where energy costs and consumer prices have followed divergent paths in the same timeframe. While the Spain CPI results reflect country-specific structural factors, the underlying message about energy-related price pressures and the role of policy responses remains relevant for households and policymakers alike. Analysts continue to watch how shifts in energy markets and regulatory measures will shape inflation trajectories in the coming months, with close attention to the October release and any subsequent revisions to the September data. [Cited: INE and economic briefings].