Spain’s growth outlook looks set to exceed 2 percent this year, according to Angel Gavilan, the director general of economy and statistics at the Bank of Spain, speaking at Cercle d’Economia. His remarks reflect a cautiously upbeat mood among policymakers about the country’s economic trajectory in the near term.
The issuer has already signaled plans to raise its forecast for the year, aiming for a pace around 2 percent. Gavilan’s more optimistic stance is bolstered by recent improvements in inflation figures, underscoring a broader sense that price pressures may ease sooner than previously expected. The next data release is scheduled for 29 June, and the government’s own projection in the 2023-2026 stabilization program update sits at 2.1 percent GDP growth, signaling alignment between official forecasts and private sector optimism.
At a roundtable session, a representative from the Bank of Spain participated to share insights. In parallel, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, and Alice Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at Natixis, contributed their perspectives in a remote format to enrich the discussion.
salaries and benefits
Earlier, the Governor of the Central Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, aligned with a belief that inflation in Europe may ease toward the 2 percent level over the medium term. He cautioned, however, that higher costs would likely have a negative impact on workers and households, noting that wage growth and benefits would feel the effect of any price pressures. Centeno, who also leads the Eurogroup, shared an optimistic outlook on inflation, suggesting it could decline to around 2 percent in the first half of 2025. His assessment reflected a broader hope that energy prices, supply chain normalization, and labor market improvements would converge to relieve the pressures seen in recent years.
Centeno emphasized a scenario where inflation cools while growth remains solid and job creation continues. He framed this combination as a sign of progress at a time when Europe confronts geopolitical tensions and a complex global economic environment. The outlook envisions a period in which wage dynamics stabilize, purchasing power improves, and economic resilience strengthens across the European union, even as governments monitor budgetary constraints and social programs closely. In this context, employers and policymakers alike are watching how labor costs evolve against the backdrop of sustained demand and productivity gains. The discussion highlighted the interconnectedness of inflation, growth, and employment, underscoring the importance of prudent monetary and fiscal policies to maintain a balanced recovery across the region.