After recovering to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of this year, Spain’s economy is projected to keep growing alongside major eurozone economies such as Germany, Italy, and France over the next two years, with a rise that surpasses 2019 levels by about 6.6 points, according to government calculations based on European Commission data and developed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise. These projections align with the central aim of maintaining steady growth while supporting a broader recovery across the region.
Under the forecast, economic activity is expected to expand by 2 percent in 2024 and remain at that pace in 2025, following a 2023 finish with 2.5 percent growth. This modest acceleration occurs even as inflation and higher interest rates dampen momentum across Europe. Notably, the stronger performance in the latter part of 2023, marked by a 0.6 percent quarterly GDP increase, positions Spain at an advantageous starting point to meet its growth targets in the near term, according to market analyses.
Commenting on the outlook, the minister emphasized that data momentum from 2023 provides a solid base for 2024 and beyond. He noted a one-point percentage point improvement in growth and highlighted a three-pronged policy approach designed to sustain expansion: social cohesion, competitiveness of the productive sector, and financial and environmental responsibility, with a clear objective of achieving full employment.
IMF growth forecast for Spain revised to 1.5 percent this year, while ranking high in the euro area
Following the transfer of the Economy, Trade and Industry portfolio, the ministry revealed that the most notable achievements over the past four years include expanding financial inclusion for the elderly and disabled. The government has signaled that financial inclusion will remain a central policy axis, even though the Financial Consumer Protection Authority was dissolved during the final stages of its proceedings after the judiciary paused operations in June. The first steps toward implementation were taken through a swift decision by the Council of Ministers in an emergency procedure.
The minister also highlighted priorities such as the social use of Sareb flats, commonly known as the bad bank, and progress in training and reskilling workers to better align labor supply with demand. He argued that these efforts will help close gaps faced by companies and reinforce the link between productivity and public policy.
Looking ahead, there is attention on the creation of a National Productivity Council to coordinate measures that influence productivity, including the impact of artificial intelligence in the manufacturing sector. The government also announced plans for a new agency to evaluate public policies and review decisions before they are enacted, with Airef slated to take on this responsibility. Additional actions are set to channel finance into the green transition, complemented by the publication of a green finance framework aimed at guiding sustainable investment and policy design.