The real estate market has endured a tough period in equity markets. Since the Covid-19 shock, often labeled a black swan event, land and homebuilders listed on the Ibex-35 have struggled to rebound. Merlin Properties and Colonial, two Socimis on the index, trade 40% to 60% below their 2019 peaks, while Aedas Homes and Neinor Homes, Spain’s largest developers, show declines and partial recoveries around 20% with mixed momentum from that same period.
Nevertheless, activity continues despite the broader weakness. Many players pressed on, delivering record results despite the downturn, and pricing remains a decisive factor for these firms. In this environment, Sareb is preparing for a substantial divestment to uphold its mandate to sell assets acquired after the 2008 bubble burst. Árqura Homes, a development vehicle that holds substantial land for future homes, also features prominently, with potential to expand as opportunities arise.
Deloitte, acting as Sareb’s advisor, is involved in the sale process, a development noted by regional media. The price Sareb anticipates for Árqura contrasts with what some potential buyers might be willing to pay, as market participants await clarity from major banks on investor interest.
Price as a hurdle in the deal
With land holdings in Árqura and Sareb’s willingness to include additional parcels, the portfolio is valued roughly between €1,000 million and €1,200 million. Yet market sentiment makes a swift sale unlikely at that price; buyers tend to demand discounts, fearing overvaluation. A discount is common in large-volume transactions, where disposing of a big parcel in one go may be less attractive to the seller and prompt buyers to seek reductions. In essence, such a sizable deal often carries a price concession to reflect the complexity and scale involved.
Industry sources estimate Sareb’s stake could be worth around €700–€800 million on the market, with some forecasts dipping to €500–€600 million or even lower, potentially covering only half of Sareb’s claims. The bad bank disposition aims to exit roughly half of the holding, with overall valuations depending on negotiations and market conditions. An asset-friendly approach might include a deferred payment arrangement that enables the buyer to settle the price over several years, easing the capital outlay and facilitating completion of the transaction.
What assets does Árqura hold?
Árqura Homes owns land capable of supporting roughly 15,000 homes, though not all sites are immediately ready for construction. Sareb reports that about 30% of the portfolio comprises land that requires urban development work, a process needing collaboration with governments, authorities, and municipalities, along with substantial urbanization payments. Another 32% of Árqura’s holdings involve projects that are either in early stages or under construction; these will be excluded from the main sale if priced to clear at a modest discount relative to post-delivery proceeds.
The remaining 38% consists of finalized plots prepared for permits and rapid construction of municipal buildings. These sites hold the greatest appeal for developers, given their ability to start deployment within roughly 18 months. They are the segments attracting the strongest investor interest.
The portfolio’s value lies especially in these ready-to-build opportunities, where speed to market translates into higher potential returns for buyers.
Who could buy Árqura?
A key aspect of the sale is Sareb’s preference to retain a 49% stake with tight conditions on control, inviting strategic buyers as partners rather than full owners. Potential buyers include developers and private equity funds that can actively develop the land themselves. Initially, the four largest Spanish developers are not expected to participate heavily. Via Célere has limited land-buying activity, Metrovacesa possesses enough land to develop in the coming years, and Aedas Homes and Neinor Homes are focused on different acquisitions that require urban treatment. Some may be outside growth cycles and risk-rejecting such a large investment.
Other participants include newly formed builders backed by North American funds, such as Culmia and Habitat, which are backed by Oaktree and Bain Capital respectively. These entities are in expansion mode, and acquiring Árqura would provide a stable source of land for years ahead. Whether they join the bidding will signal ongoing commitment to investing in Spain’s property market.
Beyond developers, mutual funds may also show interest in the Árqura portfolio. With no internal staff, Árqura has transferred management to Aelca, a developer Sareb holds an option to buy. A fund seeking entry into the Spanish market could do so by acquiring a stake and continuing development of the land as before. In any case, an opportunistic investor would expect annual returns in the 15% to 20% range, balancing urbanization risk with development upside.