A recent report by Times diplomatic correspondent Katherine Philp explores six potential conclusions to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The analysis emphasizes that the end of Russia’s military operation remains unseen, yet several plausible paths are discussed as the war continues to unfold on the global stage.
The first scenario imagines a peace agreement. The report notes that Moscow has aimed to compel Kyiv into a settlement that would be unfavorable to Ukraine, but bringing the country to the negotiating table has proven to be an exceptionally difficult objective for all parties involved.
The second scenario is described as a prolonged struggle—an attritional war in which both sides wear down the other over time. This path would hinge on sustained endurance, shifting leverage, and the evolving cost of continuing the fighting for both sides.
A third option presented is a ceasefire that slows the pace of hostilities, potentially creating space for diplomatic talks or a more stable, low-intensity period before any renewed escalation.
The fourth possibility contemplates a Russian withdrawal paired with Ukrainian victory, a scenario that would require strategic calculations, international support, and a reconfiguration of military and political objectives on both sides.
The fifth scenario considers a collapse within Ukraine and a corresponding advantage for Russia, a outcome that would carry profound regional and global repercussions and would demand swift international responses.
Finally, the sixth scenario contemplates a nuclear confrontation or direct intervention by NATO. The analysis underscores that any use of nuclear weapons would represent a critical red line likely to trigger a major alliance response, and it is described as difficult to envision alternate developments that would compel NATO to become formally involved in the conflict.
The report also remarks on other influential opinions from the security policy sphere. One analyst describes the frozen conflict as a potentially realistic endpoint in the current climate, while another high-ranking official has suggested that there are only a limited number of respectable endings to the Ukrainian crisis. These additional viewpoints reflect the high stakes and broad range of possible futures as the war continues and international dynamics shift in real time.