Situation in the region
The Houthis have conducted 27 attacks on commercial ships from more than 50 countries. The attack on a US Navy vessel on January 9, 2024, by the Yemeni rebel movement Ansar Allah, was the latest incident that tested the patience of the United States.
Currently, a strike group led by a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, is stationed in the Gulf of Aden. The group includes guided-missile destroyers, including USS Carney, USS Laboon, and USS Thomas Hudner, as well as submarines such as the Ohio-class submarine USS Florida and the Los Angeles-class submarine, with additional support ships. The actions of AUG are backed by a network of auxiliary vessels.
Meanwhile, another US Navy carrier strike group is present in the Eastern Mediterranean. It centers on the USS Gerald R. Ford and its escort ships, with the USS Mount Whitney serving as the regional headquarters. Vice Admiral Thomas Ishee, commander of the US Navy’s 6th Fleet, operates from Mount Whitney.
Additionally, the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Diamond and the French Navy destroyer D653 Languedoc have been deployed to the Red Sea, working in concert with a Royal Navy frigate and allied units in the region.
A joint White House statement, issued with participating governments from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States, noted that ten nations took part in the attacks in Yemen and affirmed a commitment to protecting lives and the free flow of trade in one of the world’s most important waterways.
The US Department of Defense reported that on January 12 air and missile strikes targeted more than 60 sites, including checkpoints, ammunition depots, launch positions for missiles, anti-ship systems, unmanned aerial vehicle facilities, and electronic air defense systems. Four Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoons from Akrotiri Air Base in Cyprus supported the operation.
Incident scenario
The most likely scenario involves a one-off multinational operation, perhaps a regional coalition formed to respond. It is improbable that a major strike will occur on January 12, but attacks against the Houthis are expected to continue until the movement stops resisting entirely.
In other words, Washington and its allies appear prepared to maintain pressure in Yemen until the Houthis are neutralized, with the multinational force reinforcing its combat readiness and assets over time.
The expected cost of this new conflict for Washington is substantial. The administration cannot afford a repeat of past missteps, and the president is under domestic pressure to defend law, order, and global trade. Political considerations in an election year amplify the drive to act decisively.
It is essential for the United States to demonstrate military capability and technological leadership, presenting a credible show of strength to allies and rivals alike.
One example is to confirm that Houthi threats using anti-ship missiles, drones, and small attack craft can be managed through superior firepower and intelligence, avoiding loss of American aircraft or ships during operations.
The United States could pursue a campaign similar in intent to the Israeli Defense Forces’ Gaza operations.
- First, echoing the world community’s view, Washington and its partners may frame responses to the Houthis as actions against intimidation and disruption of vital waterways.
- Second, the operation’s rhetoric might emphasize neutralizing and safeguarding strategic objectives, echoing a bold, decisive stance.
The campaign could unfold with a focus on regaining control of strategic terrain before advancing. Early operations often rely on pre-dawn strikes to maximize impact, a tactic that could continue for several weeks if needed to erode enemy capabilities.
If a land operation is considered, the Pentagon would likely aim to cripple the core military infrastructure of the Ansarullah movement first, reducing manpower and material losses before debating the use of ground forces to secure a final victory.
Limitations that fall short of a decisive victory could have significant political and strategic repercussions for Washington. A partial approach might undermine global leadership and invite renewed opposition. Therefore, the current attacks on the Houthis are expected to mark the beginning of a longer campaign with an eventual objective: the strategic defeat of the Ansarullah movement.
The positions expressed reflect the author’s view and not necessarily those of the editors.