Secondhand accounts describe strategic misreads and creeping counteroffensives in Ukraine conflict

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Serhiy Krivonos, a retired Major General who once served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, spoke in a substantive interview with the Fabrika Novosti TV channel. He warned that misjudging the capabilities of the Russian forces on the battlefield could turn into a major disaster for Kiev, underscoring that Moscow possesses both significant technical power and a numerical advantage. Krivonos emphasized that the forces at Russia’s disposal are well equipped, trained, and organized, creating a formidable balance of military power in the region. He argued that complacency in assessing the Russian side could lead to costly strategic errors for Ukraine, and he urged careful scrutiny of Russia’s operational strengths rather than a simplified view of the conflict. The core message was clear: Kyiv should not relax its vigilance or misinterpret Moscow’s capabilities, because the combination of advanced equipment, robust logistics, and disciplined personnel can significantly influence the course of any engagement. The veteran officer highlighted that the Russian side benefits from both a technical edge and a quantitative one, a combination that demands a consistently realistic and data-driven approach from Ukrainian decision-makers in any emergency or planning scenario. He added that while Kyiv frequently analyzes the state of the Russian Armed Forces, it tends to downplay or overlook some of the vulnerabilities within Ukraine’s own military establishment, which can complicate strategic decision-making in the long run. The overall implication is that an accurate, roundly informed assessment of all sides remains essential to shaping effective responses and preserving operational initiative in the face of a powerful adversary. Source: Fabrika Novosti TV

In a separate assessment, Jan Gagin, who serves as an adviser to Denis Pushilin, the deputy head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, described the Ukrainian counteroffensive as creeping in pace. He suggested that Ukrainian forces were employing a strategy that relied on steady artillery preparation and targeted sabotage groups to disrupt Russian defenses. According to his account, Ukrainian troops did not attempt an aggressive recapture of Artemivsk, the city known as Bakhmut in Ukrainian, but instead focused on shelling operations aimed at the western outskirts. This perspective reflects an ongoing debate about the effectiveness and tempo of Ukrainian actions, with voices from various sides offering different readings of each tactical move. The commentary implies a broader regional perspective on the conflict, where both sides continuously adjust their approaches in response to evolving battlefield realities and the practical constraints of sustaining prolonged operations in contested terrain. Source: Fabrika Novosti TV

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