The global average temperature is currently approaching the 1.5 degree threshold above pre industrial levels, a target associated with the Paris Agreement. The critical question remains whether this elevated level will be sustained over the long term. This point was underscored by Celeste Saulo, who recently assumed the role of secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, guiding the agency through evolving climate scenarios.
In her first remarks to the media after taking office on January 1, Saulo noted that the global temperature had already neared the 1.5 degree mark in 2023, with the latest WMO report estimating about 1.45 degrees. She pointed out that 2024 is expected to be warmer due to the El Niño phenomenon, underscoring the urgency of monitoring long term trends rather than short term fluctuations.
“What we really need to worry about is the long term trend of this increase.”
The statement reflected Saulo’s focus on enduring patterns rather than yearly variability. Her briefing emphasized that staying at or near the 1.5 degree abnormality would be a warning, highlighting the necessity of scrutinizing sustained temperature trajectories and their implications for climate risk in Canada, the United States, and globally.
Forecasts suggest a more challenging climate outlook for the year, with various agencies noting a potential intensification in heat and related hazards. This perspective aligns with a growing consensus that persistent warmth over extended periods increases the frequency and severity of climate impacts, including heatwaves, droughts, and associated disasters.
Saulo’s argument that the decade of elevated temperatures may be signaling a structural shift is supported by the ongoing pattern of 1.5 degrees above pre industrial levels observed for multiple consecutive years. If this pattern continues, the Paris Agreement commitments could face heightened pressure, as climate-related disasters become more frequent. Observers stress that sustained high temperatures could necessitate stronger adaptation and mitigation measures across regions most vulnerable to climate variability.
The atmosphere calls for action
The executive underscored that atmospheric data consistently point to the need for decisive action. In her first public appearance as head of the UN weather body, she stressed that climate change stands among humanity’s most intricate challenges. The path forward, she argued, must be a collective effort backed by a shared responsibility to safeguard future generations.
Saulo highlighted the opportunity to reshape the narrative around climate issues. She noted that the organization would pursue a global strategy rooted in cooperation and inclusive leadership. As the first woman to lead the WMO in its 73 year history, she framed leadership as a catalyst for bringing diverse perspectives to climate solutions, stressing that variety in thought can yield different, yet valuable, approaches to overcoming obstacles.
Public imagery of cooling efforts, such as people seeking relief in fountains, accompanied her message, illustrating the tangible signs of heat stress. Saulo spoke about prioritizing regional actions and ensuring that innovation reaches all member countries, with special attention to those with lower development levels. The intention is to strengthen early warning systems that can help prevent climate disasters before they strike.
The Secretary General reiterated a clear goal: every person should have access to timely and reliable weather and climate risk information, enabling informed decisions that save lives. This vision aligns with regional and global efforts to improve resilience, strengthen data sharing, and expand the reach of weather services so communities can better prepare for extreme events.