The new session under Russia’s leader looks set to be turbulent. A war that has stretched beyond the Kremlin’s early expectations continues, with Moscow hoping Kiev would capitulate in weeks as Georgia did in 2008. The international arena remains tense, and Putin, now in the later stage of his rule, faces pressure from multiple fronts at home even as military gains in Ukraine surface after a period of stagnation.
One group that has taken up contracts with the army with notable enthusiasm is the prison population. The government offered a contract of up to six months on the front, with freedom after the service ended. For many, this option served as a way to shorten sentences. To date, at least 32,000 inmates have fulfilled what the president of Russia called their obligation to society.
Some served time for crimes such as murder and armed robbery. Their early release has unsettled neighboring communities, who have watched individuals sentenced to ten years or more strolling the streets freely. Consider the case of former police officer Vadim Tejóv, who received a 16-year sentence for brutally murdering his wife in North Ossetia. Then there is ex-con Iván Rossomajin, a resident of the Kirov region in European Russia, arrested in March 2023 on suspicion of killing an elderly woman after serving in Ukraine.
ElComplicated Return to the Front
There had already been concern among Russians about how soldiers would reintegrate after their time at the front. In addition to those with criminal records, veterans without a prior history of crime may pose medium and long term challenges, reminiscent of the Afghan veterans from the 1980s. Some who returned then displayed behaviors linked to post-traumatic stress and even killed others in brutal acts.
Besides those who do not come back alive, casualties mount. Official figures from September 2022 show about 5,900 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine front. Western sources often report higher figures, but disclosing casualty counts within the country is considered a discredit to the armed forces and is punished. The near six thousand dead thus far surpasses the losses suffered in the Second Chechen War, one of the bloodiest conflicts in the country’s modern history.
Other Domestic Fronts
The capital has endured sanctions far better than Western expectations. While shortages affecting certain goods like aircraft parts and medicines have appeared, authorities have found ways to maintain supplies of luxury items such as high-end cars and smartphones, though not without cost. Keeping the economy afloat amid a Ukraine backed by the United States and Europe is not cheap.
Independent outlets such as Novaya Gazeta Europe, which Moscow has labeled a foreign agent, report that military spending at the end of 2023 was about twice 2022 levels. It was projected to reach 45% of the national budget, with anticipated cuts in 2024 to sectors not related to the military. Complicating the picture is the absence of budget statistics since late last year. At that time, spending reductions were seen in health care funding, including cancer treatment and cardiovascular disease programs.
Beyond the economy, another potential headache for the ruling authorities is the dissonance within the country. While most opposition has been neutralized or driven into exile, a few groups remain active inside Russia. Some voices survive outside the mainstream, but a fragment continues to challenge the regime from within.
The most vocal opponents today are the mothers and wives of soldiers on the front. They continue to protest despite detentions and threats. In response, police have arrested reporters covering these demonstrations, and authorities have even visited the homes of foreign correspondents to warn against coverage, according to reports from European journalists.