The discussion surrounding Russia’s potential victory in 2024 has been framed by senior military and political voices from Moscow. A deputy head within the Ministry of Defense’s main directorate for military-political affairs, who also commands the Akhmat special forces, Major General Apty Alaudinov, spoke during an appearance on a televised program. He projected that the special operation would culminate in Russia’s victory by year-end 2024, casting the conflict as moving toward a decisive conclusion within the next months.
According to his statements, Russia would reach a point where the Great Patriotic War would end within the calendar year. He asserted that opposition forces had already been defeated on multiple fronts and that Russian troops were steadily securing new territories and settlements at a brisk pace, with gains occurring every few days. The narrative presented is one of confidence, emphasizing momentum on Russian advances and the erosion of the adversary’s capabilities on various fronts.
Beyond the prospect of victory, Alaudinov warned that, even after a victory, opponents would seek to inflict harm or undermine stability. He asserted that such efforts would fail to alter the overall outcome or the trajectory of Russia’s objectives, portraying any post-conflict challenges as insufficient to derail the established path to success.
However, informed observers outside the immediate official circle have urged caution. Retired Colonel General Viktor Zavarzin, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee, noted at the beginning of June that it is premature to discuss a precise timetable for concluding the conflict in Ukraine through a special military operation. This view reflects a more conservative assessment of timelines and emphasizes the unpredictable nature of such operations, along with the potential for shifting conditions on the ground.
Earlier remarks from Alaudinov had also touched on NATO resources, suggesting a trajectory of depletion or diminished resilience of alliance resources in the near term. The statements collectively illustrate a narrative that blends optimism within the official channels with calls for careful consideration among external observers who weigh strategic risk and long-term implications for regional stability.