Following a series of military setbacks in autumn and early winter, Russia appears to be acting with urgency in recent weeks, adopting a do or die stance. According to reports from Ukrainian intelligence, President Vladimir Putin has set a goal for his forces to seize full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by February 24, the anniversary of the war’s outset. The window of opportunity may narrow as Kyiv’s army holds its defensive lines and Western-supplied weapons, including Leopard tanks, may still take time to become fully operational.
Drawing on official reports and expert analyses, this publication aims to clarify what such orders might look like on the front lines, the possible scope of any offensive, Moscow’s chances of success, and Ukraine’s capacity to respond to the challenge.
What is known about the preparations for the attack?
If there is no deception involved, the Russian push is likely to focus primarily on Lugansk and Donetsk. Lugansk has already seen significant action, with Russian forces briefly in control before a symbolic Ukrainian recovery. A small town, Bilohorivka, was liberated, signaling that springlike proclamations of victory have not yet found solid ground after the fall of Lysychansk. The Ukrainian side continues to contest Russian gains along the border.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War note that Moscow is concentrating troops, moving personnel, and even restricting internet access to prevent residents loyal to Kyiv from sharing Russian positions. David Lewis, a professor of global policy at the University of Exeter and an expert on international security, summarized that the most likely theatre remains Donetsk and Lugansk, where Russia has made progress since January and will likely push across Ukraine’s borders.
What are the Kremlin’s chances of victory?
Experts say that any decisive shock made to force Ukrainian surrender or to bring about negotiations would require favorable conditions for Moscow, potentially creating new defensive lines to anchor a broader push. The goal of conquering both Donetsk and Lugansk outright remains improbable before February 24, according to analysts. The attack has already begun, and Russia would likely seek to seize additional territories in Donbas, while expecting to prolong actions through March and establish new defences. Any large-scale conquest, such as acquiring more towns, would entail heavy losses and strong fortifications ahead of further advances toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Beyond the Donbas, other fronts must not be neglected. The southern region, especially Zaporizhzhia, stands out because the land corridor linking Crimea with Donbas remains vulnerable. A Ukrainian counterattack could threaten the main strategic gains Russia achieved at the start of the offensive. A British academic observer notes that Moscow would prefer to shift its lines away from Melitopol to reduce exposure of the corridor.
What is the likely reaction of Ukraine to the attack?
Initial outcomes will hinge on both sides’ ability to replenish weapon stocks. Analysts observe an ongoing arms race, with Ukraine drawing weapons from Western partners and Russia seeking supplies from allied sources, including purchases in the Middle East. Neither side appears poised to deliver a decisive blow in the near term, suggesting a protracted period of heightened tensions rather than a rapid end to the conflict.
If the Russian offensive fails to deliver expected results and Moscow suffers casualties similar to past confrontations, the situation could become politically and militarily difficult for the Kremlin and may open space for a new Ukrainian counteroffensive before spring. Some observers warn that a successful Russian breakthrough, if it occurs in certain sectors, could risk a deeper confrontation and escalate the overall conflict. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged the harsh and ongoing nature of the fight in the impacted areas.