During the height of the COVID-19 situation in Russia, daily case numbers were reported to reach as high as 100,000. Experts cautioned that this figure was unlikely to be surpassed significantly, offering a more restrained outlook on the trajectory of the outbreak. This assessment came from virologist Pavel Volchkov, who leads the genome engineering laboratory at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology and has long studied how the virus spreads and evolves within large populations.
Volchkov noted that the current wave remains active and evolving, but he did not foresee a surge in new infections of the kind seen at the peak of the earlier wave. He pointed to historical data, highlighting a February period when daily infections hovered around 200,000. Even in a worst case scenario, he suggested that the numbers might not double that high this time, and he emphasized a cautious, data-driven expectation of the overall trend rather than a dramatic spike.
Looking ahead, the expert anticipated that the number of new cases would not rise sharply in August. The more likely pattern, he explained, would manifest in September or October, when seasonal and behavioral factors could influence transmission rates. He underscored that public health responses would hinge on practical decisions made by communities, institutions, and authorities rather than on sweeping, nationwide shutdowns.
In terms of containment measures, Volchkov suggested that broad quarantines are unlikely to reappear. Instead, he anticipated careful risk management, with some schools or organizations adopting targeted precautions if necessary. Region by region, the approach could vary, reflecting local conditions and preparedness levels rather than a single nationwide directive.
When comparing Russia to Japan, Volchkov highlighted distinct dynamics in how the virus continues to circulate. Despite Russia reporting lower vaccination coverage in some areas, many people have built a level of natural immunity after exposure to the virus. Japan, meanwhile, has eased quarantine requirements and seen the protective effects of mass vaccination wane over time. The combination of relatively high population density in parts of Japan and the relaxation of restrictions has contributed to higher observed infection rates there, illustrating how different social and policy contexts shape the course of the pandemic in each country.