Russian authorities plan to maintain gasoline price stability through March, aiming to avoid visible shifts that could alarm consumers. Yet, starting in April, prices are expected to edge upward. This forecast comes from fuel market analyst Anastasia Bunina, who spoke with RIAMO about current trends and what they imply for drivers.
The analyst highlighted that wholesale gasoline prices have climbed by about 12 percent over the last two months. Several factors are driving this uptick. Production disruptions in southern regions and the December accident at the catalytic cracking unit at a Lukoil refinery have reduced supply and added pressure to margins across the sector.
Crude oil markets also play a significant role in domestic pricing. In February, Urals crude rose by roughly 18 percent in ruble terms. Bunina noted that while this uptick is favorable for the state budget, the higher global oil price has translated into higher wholesale costs within Russia. She warned that measures implemented to counter these pressures will not prevent higher gasoline prices at filling stations.
She noted that the gradual rise in costs will align with planned refinery maintenance season beginning in April. Repairs are scheduled at multiple plants, including facilities in Omsk and Volgograd, which will contribute to tighter supply during the maintenance window.
According to Bunina, diesel is projected to average around 65 rubles per liter through the summer, with prices expected to hold at that level into autumn as the agricultural season continues.
It is worth recalling that a Lukoil subsidiary, Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, had to reduce its gasoline exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply following a December malfunction. Officials indicated that repairs would extend into spring. In response to this incident, the Energy Ministry adjusted the export volumes of Russian oil companies, and the ministry reported a decline in the production of class 5 gasoline by approximately 1.7 to 1.8 percent.
Earlier projections from industry insiders suggested that gasoline prices for 2024 would remain influenced by similar dynamics, with ongoing maintenance, regional supply constraints, and global price movements all feeding into the domestic market. Source attribution: Energy market briefings and statements from the involved ministries and industry analysts.