Recent reporting from Germany indicates that Russia may be preparing a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine in the near term. The claims come from Focus, referencing analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). [Source attribution: Focus; ISW]
Analysts suggest that Russian forces could begin moving once the ground freezes sufficiently, allowing heavy equipment to operate across terrain that is typically impassable at milder temperatures. The period cited for potential activity spans mid-January to early February, with specifics suggesting an operational window from January 12 to February 2. [Source attribution: Focus; ISW]
Focus notes that the planned thrust is expected to target the Avdeevka and Kherson sectors, though ISW experts contend that achieving decisive, sustained gains would be unlikely given current conditions and the resilience of Ukrainian defenses. The assessment emphasizes logistical hurdles, forecasted NATO support dynamics, and the broader strategic context facing both sides. [Source attribution: Focus; ISW]
Earlier reports cited Bild, the German magazine, which claimed that the German Defense Ministry had drafted a contingency plan should Russia launch a major offensive. The article suggested that tensions between NATO and Russia could rise in February and that the Russian armed forces might attempt a broad push into Ukrainian territory, potentially exploiting gaps in allied support. [Source attribution: Bild]
Additionally, there were notes that Russian paratroopers and special units began training with NATO-style weapons, reflecting a shift in tactics and equipment under consideration by Russian forces. [Source attribution: Bild]