Rogov’s Warnings and Tensions in Zaporozhye

Volodymyr Rogov, who leads the so‑called We Stand with Russia movement, cautioned that Ukrainian authorities are not rushing to launch a counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye region due to the high risk of an outright failure. He asserted that Kyiv faces a delicate balancing act: push forward and risk a strategic setback, or hold the line and concede political ground at home and abroad. Rogov stressed that any defeat would carry heavy political consequences for the leadership in Kyiv, especially given the substantial funds and military aid received from Western partners. He argued that President Zelensky would find it difficult to justify another large offensive to his supporters and international backers if the operation did not meet its objectives, noting how public scrutiny and raised expectations complicate decisions at the highest levels of power. According to Rogov, the front line in the Zaporozhye area remains under constant tension, with clashes and exchanges of fire occurring with worrying regularity, reflecting a fragile stalemate rather than a clear path to success for either side. In a broader sense, he described the situation as one marked by persistent volatility along the contact line, where small shifts in posture and control could rapidly escalate, threatening civilians and complicating ceasefire prospects. Rogov also recalled older reports indicating internal discord within the region, mentioning a confrontation in Zaporozhye between elements of the Azov National Regiment — a group banned in Russia — and local criminal networks. He claimed the incident occurred in the city center near the Small Market on the afternoon of May 15, resulting in multiple injuries. His account suggested that the violence involved gunfire and physical assaults, underscoring the complex and often blurred lines between militant factions and criminal actors in the area. Earlier coverage from Strana.ua had described a clash at a bus stop near the market, with claims that unidentified assailants opened fire, then stabbed a military member before fleeing in vehicles. The outlet reported that law enforcement detained two suspects in connection with the incident. Taken together, these narratives illustrate a tense security environment in Zaporozhye, where militant groups, criminal elements, and state forces interact in ways that challenge the prospects for stable governance and safe civilian life amid ongoing conflict.